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Here we go again....and just why is Mr Porte so heavily fancied again?...He was stealing a living last season. 

He’s definitely the first issue to think about this season for the purist team...isn’t he?

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Dr Winston [825 posts] 8 months ago
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I think if we want to win a race we have to be prepared to get on riders early and hope they perform as expected...just like Haas and McCarthy...perfectly good picks but if they’re not quite on song then it blows up in our faces...but it doesn’t mean they were bad picks...just early picks. If we want to do well overall for the season it’s far better to wait and accept not winning the race but just doing well in every/most races and grinding it out.

I won two races last season.

Catalunya where I just got lucky by getting on the right rolleur horses early but could easily have gone wrong and left me way down....as it did on the next race...

and

The Vuelta which I won due, in no small part, to the fact I managed to miss two deadlines that turned out to be the right deadlines to miss in view of what I planned and how those riders did...and those were rolleur picks as well that would have done me in...I ended up with about five extra transfers at the end to play around with on the last few stages. A serious bit of luck there.

What do I type into Facebook to watch it?

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MinardiM189 [683 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

What do I type into Facebook to watch it?

The facebook page is - https://www.facebook.com/globalcyclingnetwork/

or do a search fro GCN and it comes up.

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MinardiM189 [683 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

I think if we want to win a race we have to be prepared to get on riders early and hope they perform as expected...just like Haas and McCarthy...perfectly good picks but if they’re not quite on song then it blows up in our faces...but it doesn’t mean they were bad picks...just early picks. If we want to do well overall for the season it’s far better to wait and accept not winning the race but just doing well in every/most races and grinding it out.

Normally I try to leave a bit of flexibility in my team but this time went a bit 'gung ho'. I compounded it by bringing in Poels for stage 4, my choice of sprinters for tomorrow is now limited.

Hopefully someone makes tomorrows stage slightly crazy.

It starts uphill then the first intermediate sprint is after 47km just after the KoM.

Some teams could go hard from the start, drop the top sprinters and go for bonus seconds with their GC rider. Depending who is in the front group and what the gaps are it could go all the way.

Looking at the course and weather forecast there will be a 20-30kph cross tailwind for the final 40km.  Again this could see things go crazy.

 

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Dr Winston [825 posts] 8 months ago
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A really tricky day to call tactically. The four GC boys of Porte, Bennett, Poels and Oods May just end up dragging Sanchez, Bevin, Impey and Ulissi towards the sprint if they do that....would the GC boys not prefer Ewan and Viviani and co to take all the bonus seconds.?....Mmmm...crikey....mmmm again....dunno....you might be right.

I have 5 transfers left and beginning to wonder where I will use them all.quote=MinardiM189]

Dr Winston wrote:

I think if we want to win a race we have to be prepared to get on riders early and hope they perform as expected...just like Haas and McCarthy...perfectly good picks but if they’re not quite on song then it blows up in our faces...but it doesn’t mean they were bad picks...just early picks. If we want to do well overall for the season it’s far better to wait and accept not winning the race but just doing well in every/most races and grinding it out.

Normally I try to leave a bit of flexibility in my team but this time went a bit 'gung ho'. I compounded it by bringing in Poels for stage 4, my choice of sprinters for tomorrow is now limited.

Hopefully someone makes tomorrows stage slightly crazy.

It starts uphill then the first intermediate sprint is after 47km just after the KoM.

Some teams could go hard from the start, drop the top sprinters and go for bonus seconds with their GC rider. Depending who is in the front group and what the gaps are it could go all the way.

Looking at the course and weather forecast there will be a 20-30kph cross tailwind for the final 40km.  Again this could see things go crazy.

 

[/quote]

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MinardiM189 [683 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

A really tricky day to call tactically. The four GC boys of Porte, Bennett, Poels and Oods May just end up dragging Sanchez, Bevin, Impey and Ulissi towards the sprint if they do that....would the GC boys not prefer Ewan and Viviani and co to take all the bonus seconds.?....Mmmm...crikey....mmmm again....dunno....you might be right.

I have 5 transfers left and beginning to wonder where I will use them all.

I include Impey & Bevin among the GC guys. The climb is nowhere near hard enough to drop them anyway.

Mitchelton Scott could make it a hard start to set up Impey for some time bonuses.

Impey has said tomorrows stage should be 'interesting' and that  'we need to be aggressive wherever we can'.

I have 5 transfers left too.

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Dr Winston [825 posts] 8 months ago
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Ulissi is worth keeping an eye on as well. Porte has stolen his thunder over the years with five wins in a row but Ulissi’s record is impressive as well.

MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

A really tricky day to call tactically. The four GC boys of Porte, Bennett, Poels and Oods May just end up dragging Sanchez, Bevin, Impey and Ulissi towards the sprint if they do that....would the GC boys not prefer Ewan and Viviani and co to take all the bonus seconds.?....Mmmm...crikey....mmmm again....dunno....you might be right.

I have 5 transfers left and beginning to wonder where I will use them all.

I include Impey & Bevin among the GC guys. The climb is nowhere near hard enough to drop them anyway.

Mitchelton Scott could make it a hard start to set up Impey for some time bonuses.

Impey has said tomorrows stage should be 'interesting' and that  'we need to be aggressive wherever we can'.

I have 5 transfers left too.

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Dr Winston [825 posts] 8 months ago
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Damn....Caleb Ewan disqualified and no Viviani is gonna hurt....

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MinardiM189 [683 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston wrote:

Damn....Caleb Ewan disqualified and no Viviani is gonna hurt....

I went the other way and chose Viviani over Ewan,  the relegation for Ewan is great news for anyone who didn't have him.

Given how close the standard competition can be at the end of the year, this stage could be the difference between winning and losing.

So you think Viviani will go for the intermediate sprint points?

The only way Viviani can win is if Bevin does not finish. I have a feeling  Sagan will try and get in the break, we could have both Sagan & Viviani.

I took a punt on Gibbons, which looks like it backfired, it was Gibbons, Sanchez or Guerreiro. Gibbons did as expected but both Guerreiro and Sanchez did better than I expected. Hopefully Gibbons can stay with the group up Willalunga and surprise everbody again, however I expect Guerreiro to be the best of the three tomorrow.

 

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Dr Winston [825 posts] 8 months ago
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Yes I do think Viviani will go for those sprint pts...and Sagan. Or put it another way...it would suit quite a few GC teams if those two went up the road in a group on a battle for the pts jersey standings and kept Impey well away from the bonus seconds...they certainly wouldn’t fight to bring them back.

Got up to 22nd now but it could have been so much better with Ewan. 

MinardiM189 wrote:
Dr Winston wrote:

Damn....Caleb Ewan disqualified and no Viviani is gonna hurt....

I went the other way and chose Viviani over Ewan,  the relegation for Ewan is great news for anyone who didn't have him.

Given how close the standard competition can be at the end of the year, this stage could be the difference between winning and losing.

So you think Viviani will go for the intermediate sprint points?

The only way Viviani can win is if Bevin does not finish. I have a feeling  Sagan will try and get in the break, we could have both Sagan & Viviani.

I took a punt on Gibbons, which looks like it backfired, it was Gibbons, Sanchez or Guerreiro. Gibbons did as expected but both Guerreiro and Sanchez did better than I expected. Hopefully Gibbons can stay with the group up Willalunga and surprise everbody again, however I expect Guerreiro to be the best of the three tomorrow.

 

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MinardiM189 [683 posts] 8 months ago
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Dr Winston]</p>

<p>Yes I do think Viviani will go for those sprint pts...and Sagan. Or put it another way...it would suit quite a few GC teams if those two went up the road in a group on a battle for the pts jersey standings and kept Impey well away from the bonus seconds...they certainly wouldn’t fight to bring them back.</p>

<p>Got up to 22nd now but it could have been so much better with Ewan.&nbsp;[quote=MinardiM189

wrote:

Looks like you have a few transfers left too.

You have managed this race much better than I did. If Ewan hadn't been relegated I would be much further back.

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Dr Winston [825 posts] 8 months ago
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Bevin cleared to race today. Confirmed.

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