Drivers ‘priced off road’ by fuel costs

We managed to pick up a used 2015 Leaf a couple of years ago when they were very cheap in the US. I think we paid about $11000 (~£8300.) It meets her needs and drives like a very nice car, with more than adequate acceleration and quite good handling despite its heft. It's also quite spacious, easily taking my bicycle in the back with the seats folded down. The maintenance costs so far have been negligible: basically tyres and wipers. So far at around 80k miles it's down one bar (out of 14?) on the battery capacity display.

The only downside is any long trips have to be done in my convertible MINI, which I love but which can be cramped with four occupants and luggage, or the two of us plus a medium dog.

andystow wrote:

We managed to pick up a used  Leaf

never pick up a used leaf in the woods, unless you are sure what it has been used for

wycombewheeler wrote:

never pick up a used leaf in the woods, unless you are sure what it has been used for

Reminds me of the story of a man who presented himself at A&E complaining of severe abdominal pain. They examined him and found a lettuce leaf sticking out of his anus.

"This will only take a second to remove" says the nurse.

"That's just the tip of the iceberg" explains the man

hawkinspeter wrote:

wycombewheeler wrote:

never pick up a used leaf in the woods, unless you are sure what it has been used for

Reminds me of the story of a man who presented himself at A&E complaining of severe abdominal pain. They examined him and found a lettuce leaf sticking out of his anus.

"This will only take a second to remove" says the nurse.

"That's just the tip of the iceberg" explains the man

Could have been worse - he could have had a rocket up there.

WWII mortar !

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/bomb-squad-called-glouce...

My sister has a secondhand Leaf (old shape) and it's excellent. Range is only 80 miles in winter but she has access to a petrol car if needed. I've driven it and it's really good - the acceleration off the line is quite a surprise. Lots of practical touches. If I could charge one at home, I'd get one.

I wouldn't bank on cheap off-peak electricity, especially if your supplier goes bust or contract needs renewing...

Indeed, especially when all it takes to set up an electricity company in the UK is a kitchen table, a laptop, the internet, and £25 to set up a company.... The electricity regulator is a joke.  

I suspect that EVs are viable until everyone wants one.

kil0ran wrote:

For the urban or rural poor none of this is really an option, and that's why petrol prices are a barrier to social mobility

Fuel price is only part of it. Genuinely poor people struggle to afford to buy a single car and pay for VED and insurance, never mind the fuel and cost of servicing/repairs.

It may be stating the obvious, but old cars usually need more attention. I've been running older cars all my working life, I've never paid more than £2k for one. But while the initial cost is relatively low and depreciation is negligible, visits to the garage are more frequent and the likely extra cost (and inconvenience) should be factored into your calculations.

While the price of electricity will go up I anticipate that the cost of fossil fuels will rise by a greater amount in time. The rate of increase is anyone's guess - unless the Green party wins an election the government will continue to support and subsidise the fossil fuel industry in order to remain in power. Climate change can be someone else's problem, they'll promise to plant a few trees (while chopping down an even greater number for biomass and yet another bypass/ring road).

If I was in your position I would seriously consider an EV and do my utmost to avoid a petrol or diesel vehicle.

A serious suggestion: leave the car near the school during the day and use a bike to get around in the meantime. It would halve the mileage.

Simon E wrote:

kil0ran wrote:

For the urban or rural poor none of this is really an option, and that's why petrol prices are a barrier to social mobility

Fuel price is only part of it. Genuinely poor people struggle to afford to buy a single car and pay for VED and insurance, never mind the fuel and cost of servicing/repairs.

Said shorter - being poor is a barrier to social mobility. Where you can afford to live determines many of your options - and that may depend upon where you can find work etc.

In many places jobs are lacking or employment options poor, ameneties scarce, cheaper housing a long way from all of the above and the public transport required to reach these (or any option other than driving) is very limited.

As always it's bigger than just "can't afford to run the car". It seems we need to change from a system based around the private car and driving. Change is always hard and this is a major change. We may need to alter (more or less) a pattern which we've followed for decades. We're partly here because - while expensive for the poorest - cars and driving are relatively cheap. There are a wide range of subsidies. It also appears cheaper overall because we choose not to count some of the costs on the balance sheet (e.g. health and mobility impacts). And as always the richer folks will find this easier and the poorest more difficult.

Cartoon from the US, but look what they've put as the first "step" in this. It doesn't have to be this way, even without the medical and student debt that are not such a problem in the UK.

60 years ago most people commuted by public transport or bike/motorcycle. It's a recent affectation in this country, driven by inner city decline, out of town shopping, and a general flight to the suburbs. Oh and marketing of course, and keeping up with the Joneses. 

I find it very strange that our friends with teenagers have followed the path we did - pass test at 17/18, first car at 18. Two of the lads are paying almost £2k for insurance. Others are paying £250 a month for a brand new car on contract hire. 

Cars and all the changes you mention go hand in hand. Carlton Reid has some excellent stuff on the history and the images are amazing - far more people going about their business on bikes than in the infra porn from The Netherlands today.

As you've mentioned in your other post there are powerful reasons for keeping on driving. And kids taking it up - even though it's chunks of money. "Sunk costs", cultural norms / pressures / desire to increase your status or at least not be seen as inferior, as well as the psychological ("freedom"). Well put on that.

It will take more than just "nudges" to really shift things. I'm hopeful (not wildly so...) that a conbination of different pushes and pulls can make a difference. But I agree that unless there are alternatives to driving - which need to address some of the reasons we like cars - just trying to bring down the ban hammer isn't going to get far. That's why I'm a bore about decent infrastructure and mass cycling. Cycling is an alternative to private motorcars for many journeys which also has the imporant aspects of freedom / convenience / go anywhere you want / private transport which we like in cars.

We're just one example but with decent infra we'd cut our fossil fuel use by 8,000 miles per year. The only thing preventing it is fear of allowing my son to mix with tippers and heavy traffic all doing 50mph. 

A kid in his class started cycling to school about a month ago, he lasted two weeks before he'd been scared off the road.

When I were a lad (early/mid 80s) we all cycled to school - about 3 miles - in all weathers. Didn't think twice about it, or consider the safety aspect. And that was cycling on the road, mixing it with rush hour traffic. I honestly can't recall a near miss in 7 years of doing that. It was just second nature, I'd even ride my bike to my mate's house 500 yards away just to go in and play computer games/watch telly.  We need to get back to enabling that level of normalcy. 

I think we need to change the mindset to see "transport" as a utilty/tax in the same way as we do electric/gas/water/council tax/internet. You don't see people bragging about whether they're with nPower rather than Ovo. Ending ownership might help with that and there are moves afoot with personal contract hire. A lot of car makers starting to direct sell over the 'net with the intention of using their dealer network for service and providing local test drives. Transport-as-a-Service if you will, just like your broadband contract. Personally I'd love a means to have shared ownership/use of an EV because with both of us permanently WFH there's little point in having it sat on the drive.

Amen to your other reply. I do think that - although overall "road safety" has improved* - there is a greater volume of traffic than when we were yoof (I'm of a similar vintage and was also travelling on my bike lots because cycling was cooler than walking as a kid).

I think plenty of vehicle sellers are already embracing the "transport as a service" model whether that's just hire-purchase or full on car club. It'll be interesting to see how that pans out. (Obviously in the UK ATM it would probably mean immunity from prosecution as we seem to be totally foxed when we need to identify drivers...). It seems in some cities this is really very convenient now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OObwqreAJ48

(8:53 for a map showing some of the hire locations)

* Lots of factors but making it safer *inside* cars and further reducing numbers of pedestrians and cyclists on the road are a couple.

I think that will be the main benefit of driverless cars.

Transport will become a utility and road space can go back to being used for transport rather than storage.

I've no idea where you live but Enterprise run a car club scheme in quite a few locations, it's usually a fiver a month for membership but can be much cheaper.

In a way driverless cars can be more inclusive than cycling as they will be accessible to people who may not physically be able to cycle.

I don't think most people will care if their car stops to pick someone up. Most car drivers stop multiple times on a drive anyway. If the car is divided into pods there won't be any privacy or hygiene issues so I really can't see it being an issue.

If driverless cars can increase car occupancy then congestion will disappear, any route can then keep to main roads as much as possible only going to residential roads for pick ups and drop offs.

The lack of parked cars will also ease congestion.

It's the cost that makes driverless cars inevitable in my opinion.

Elsewhere on the thread people mention 18 year olds paying £5000 a year for a car+insurance. I've got friends that pay £5000 a year just in lease costs (madness I tell thee).

The amount of money to be made just by disrupting those models is enormous, add in bus/taxi revenue and freight transport etc and the potential revenue likely reaches the trillions.

I can't see my children's generation ever learning to drive and once that cultural link is severed it's never coming back for all the reasons (and more) that you mentioned.

I'm not sure driverless will every be good enough to handle the randomness that is humans, but we are now down to a single pedal, speed limiters, and a steering wheel. A lot of modern EVs use throttle position to kick the car into brake regen mode which works even better than traditional engine braking. There's still a physical pedal for emergencies but once you get used to the brake mode it's rare that you'll use the physical pedal. 

On the cost side of things I'm not sure the cycle hire model can apply to cars, unless the operators choose not to care about damage, punctures, etc. 

It's running pretty well in Arizona and trials underway in San Francisco.

If it can handle the latter it should be good just about anywhere.

I think it'll run like the current Waymo service, just a taxi essentially.

kil0ran wrote:

I find it very strange that our friends with teenagers have followed the path we did - pass test at 17/18, first car at 18. Two of the lads are paying almost £2k for insurance. Others are paying £250 a month for a brand new car on contract hire. 

But they need a car. You can't meet your mates and get served junk at McDonald's drive-thru without a car. Everyone has a car (they'll say).

My son is now working 20 miles away. Small firm so carshare is not possible, rural location means no public transport. Hours are 8-5 but he may have to work extended hours without notice. He passed his test 18 months ago and was driving my car for a year or so but at 20 y/o has managed to get a 63-reg Skoda Rapid insured for £850/year. I can't see him doing that kind of work (tractor mechanic) without his own vehicle unless he leaves home and lives within walking distance of the workshop.

Simon E wrote:

kil0ran wrote:

For the urban or rural poor none of this is really an option, and that's why petrol prices are a barrier to social mobility

Fuel price is only part of it. Genuinely poor people struggle to afford to buy a single car and pay for VED and insurance, never mind the fuel and cost of servicing/repairs.

If I was in your position I would seriously consider an EV and do my utmost to avoid a petrol or diesel vehicle.

A serious suggestion: leave the car near the school during the day and use a bike to get around in the meantime. It would halve the mileage.

When I was proper poor I still ran a car. Bangernomics and being handy with the spanners helps. Alternative was £100 for a travelcard and 2 hours on the bus every day. Admittedly this was when petrol was much, much cheaper. 

We'll almost certainly go EV - just waiting on Scottish Power to confirm the overnight rate. Even if it ends up being a little more expensive than the dismal (financially) it will be great for virtue-signalling  reducing our carbon footprint.

Thanks for the suggestion about leaving the car at school for the day, that's complete genius! I'm more than happy to cycle home and then back again for pickup, barely warmed up in 7/8 flat miles. Will be like going back to commuting.

kil0ran wrote:

When I was proper poor I still ran a car. Bangernomics and being handy with the spanners helps.

Those days are gone, sadly. Modern cars are full of electronics. Evem my bottom-of-the-range car needs the key turned in the ignition to wind the window down; and if it stops working there's I wouldn't try stripping down the door panel to fix it, which I happily did with my mk 2 Polo.

kil0ran wrote:

Thanks for the suggestion about leaving the car at school for the day, that's complete genius!

That's great!

I thought twice about saying it as so often people then come up with excuses because in reality they just want to justify using a car.

I started doing something similar when my son went to college. The bus pickup point was 6 miles across town and not too far from my work. Although it was only 3 miles on busy A-roads, I worked out a route along some quieter lanes where I could manage a longer, more relaxed and scenic ride without mixing with main road traffic.

Can't believe I didn't think of it! Back when I was commuting into Southampton every day I did a mixed-mode commute - drive part of the way (22 miles so a bit long for an every day commute, particularly in winter) and cycle the rest. The really mad thing is that what I normally do is drop him at school, go for an MTB ride in the local woods (around 10 miles), pop the bike back on the car, drive home, and then drive back to pick him up in the afternoon. 

Whilst I started WFH long before COVID I've really missed the commute I used to do, it really used to set me up for the day. Now I can do it again, except I'm commuting to my home office with better showers, coffee, and company. If I do it every day that's 4000 miles of petrol/diesel saved which is a huge motivation. 

(Having sold all my road bikes earlier this year this is also an N+1 opportunity, thinking of going SS seeing as it's so flat). For now I'll dust off my trusty Triban 3 on its skinny 23mm tyres and Claris group, almost retro enough for Eroica!

kil0ran wrote:

... If everyone buys an EV and charges it overnight from grid power it's no longer cheap capacity is it?

Even with that, I don't think overnight electricity will go up much, renewables (except solar) will continue to generate overnight and it's useful for that electricity to have somewhere to go when offices, factories and shops are closed and people are asleep.