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Bike sales predicted to drop in 2020 despite lock down bike sales boom

Roller coaster ride for cycle trade as squeeze on consumer spending dents sales say report before dramatic growth in coming years

We may be in the midst of a lock down powered bike sales boom but the UK bike market is still predicted to contract this year by 10 per cent to £842 million in a new report by consumer research firm Mintel. The good news for the UK bike trade is that sales are then predicted to grow dramatically and be worth £3 billion by 2023.

Consumer research for the report was carried out in February, and while Mintel,  which coined the term  MAMIL, or “Middle Aged Man In Lycra” has altered its forecasts due to the coronavirus pandemic, which will affect different sectors of the economy in different ways, that does mean that responses need to be treated with caution.

Sales forecasts, however, have been revised to take account of the ongoing crisis, and according to Mintel following the sales dip predicted this year, with market value estimated to fall to £842 million from £940 million in 2019, it will recover over the next three years as pent-up demand is released.

The prediction that the market will fall by more than 10 per cent this year is an interesting one, given what we have been hearing from retailers large and small, which have been experiencing unprecedented demand for new bikes during the past three months, plus the government encouraging people to commute by bike as lockdown eases.

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If anything is likely to put a brake on spending on bicycles, we’d expect it to be due to supply issues – we know that some retailers have sold out of popular models, with stock in some cases not expected to arrive for several months as manufacturers, many of which have had to adapt their working practices as a result of COVID-19, struggle to keep up with global demand.

The company also says that women and people aged under 45 are the most likely people to take up cycling – at 59 per cent and 55 per cent, respectively – with the numbers of people taking to bikes expected to grow as the country emerges from lockdown.

Mintel senior analyst, John Worthington, said: “The COVID-19 crisis and its economic impact have ushered in a period of unprecedented volatility in the cycling market.

“The crisis has provided a boost to demand in the immediate term, but bike sales are likely to fall later in 2020 as an anticipated deep recession bites.

“The likely repercussions of COVID-19 on cycling participation are complex. The UK lockdown is disrupting patterns of behaviour, which initially resulted in lower levels of weekday cycle commuting overall, but a boost to weekend leisure riding.

“As lockdown restrictions ease and Brits return to the workplace there is likely to be a shift from crowded public transport to crowded streets. The fact that at the beginning of the year a third of adults who didn't currently cycle said they would consider doing so in the future suggests there is huge potential to increase cycle participation rates.

“Once spending recovers from the impact of the recession, the long-term market potential is strong.

“Cycling is uniquely placed to benefit from growing health, wellness, and environmental trends – all of which may be boosted by the COVID-19 crisis - and a broader urban mobility revolution which includes e-bikes and e-scooters,” he added.

9 of the best 2020 ebikes for under £1,000

Mintel also says that an estimated 100,000 e-bikes were sold in the UK last year, up by more than 40 per cent on the 73,000 sold in 2018. They are now owned by 7 per cent of cyclists, while 17 per cent plan to buy one in the next 12 months.

“The e-bike market has been growing rapidly over the past two years and consumer interest is high,” Worthington said.

“While accounting for a fraction of bike sales, the scale of potential growth for e-bikes is huge. In European countries with much higher rates of cycling participation than the UK, e-bikes are becoming as popular as standard bikes.

“However, while interest today is strong, e-bike sales could take longer to recover from the impact of the looming recession than standard bikes, as they’re significantly more expensive,” he added.

Simon joined road.cc as news editor in 2009 and is now the site’s community editor, acting as a link between the team producing the content and our readers. A law and languages graduate, published translator and former retail analyst, he has reported on issues as diverse as cycling-related court cases, anti-doping investigations, the latest developments in the bike industry and the sport’s biggest races. Now back in London full-time after 15 years living in Oxford and Cambridge, he loves cycling along the Thames but misses having his former riding buddy, Elodie the miniature schnauzer, in the basket in front of him.

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17 comments

Avatar
RoubaixCube | 3 years ago
1 like

Well of course its going to drop. Especially when you have retailers telling customers they cant have the bike they paid for in 2020 until sometime in 2021.

The second hand market for people who want to sell their bikes will be booming though...

evidenced by the rise in bike thefts because theives know that its a surefire way to make a few bucks. Espcially when the standard of policing is at an all time low and continuing its ever increasing drop to the center of the earth.

What sort of mong would i be to let you hold onto my money indefinitely when i could be looking elsewhere for what i want?

Im looking to buy a bike. Not invest on the stockmarket. I'll take my money elsewhere if you cant meet the demand for supply.

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mdavidford replied to RoubaixCube | 3 years ago
7 likes

I don't know what you would be, but maybe rethink the words you use to describe it.

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GenghisKhan replied to mdavidford | 3 years ago
2 likes

OK Karen!!

Oh my, a word I don't like...............clutches pearls & runs for safe space............send for the "Thought Police"!!

Make him kneel imediately & apologise.

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IanGlasgow replied to GenghisKhan | 3 years ago
8 likes

mickb wrote:

OK Karen!!

Oh my, a word I don't like...............clutches pearls & runs for safe space............send for the "Thought Police"!!

Make him kneel imediately & apologise.

wow, what a jerk.

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Hirsute replied to GenghisKhan | 3 years ago
4 likes

And that's your first post...

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hawkinspeter replied to GenghisKhan | 3 years ago
7 likes

Who'd have thought that a word that insults a whole ethnic group and disparages a genetic condition shouldn't be used that way? It's not 'Thought Police' but just common decency. Maybe you're just an arsehole though?

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Rick_Rude replied to hawkinspeter | 3 years ago
0 likes

I remember Ming being in charge of mongs? That was in 1981 though.

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brooksby replied to Rick_Rude | 3 years ago
4 likes

In this context, I think "mong" doesn't refer to the people of Mongo, loyal subjects of Emperor Ming the Merciless (also a problematic racial stereotype, but that is another matter).

In this context, I think "mong" is an abbreviation for "mongoloid", originally referring to people with Downs Syndrome (cos they look just like people from Mongolia, geddit?) and then later it became used as a more general term for anyone considered to have learning and/or developmental problems.

It is not an expression that anyone should be using nowadays, IMO.

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GenghisKhan replied to brooksby | 3 years ago
1 like

"IMO" is indeed the key to this.

And therein lies the problem! It is merely each of your opinions which lead you to post as you do. What makes your opinions right & another's wrong? Sadly, there is a degree of self aggrandisement in your attitudes. Some would cruelly say "group smugness". (I could be tempted to go that far but will resist)

You also miss my point entirely as you rush to virtue signal to each other & one of you even labels me a "jerk" & another an "arsehole". Powerful critical analysis I have to admit. Amusingly, though, pretty much what I expected (no..I have to confess - "hoped for" - bored by weeks of lockdown as I am now). Might be my first post but I have read plenty of comments on here over the years so know the general tenor.

A suggestion; read "The Madness of Crowds" & have a little think before you get sucked into band waggons so easily in the future.

My point: Somebody took the trouble to post an opinion & yet rather than comment on the substance of the content the OP is immediately criticised for the use of one word as if this reveals a deep, ugly truth about his/her character & colours any opinion they may hold. Four letters arranged in a particular order which, in your opinions, will cause offence not just to you & your fellow "professional offence takers" but to the groups you choose, unelected, to speak on behalf of (wow!! - even an entire ethnic group, I see!).

I would, however, respectfully point out that banning words is a first small step along the path to burning books! History shows that those who sanction & condone it are always convinced it's for the best (well the useful idiots are led to see it that way).

I would also contend that only when a word is surrendered by good & decent people to those who want to use it maliciously does it gain any real power to hurt. If you ignore it, or better still, use it without malintent the word loses any power to do bad things. We once used to know this fact as a nation & even taught it to our children.

Further to the comments above; judging people for "wrong speak" is exactly what the thought police aided by their snitches do in "1984". "Arsehole" or not, I would contend (as a long time scholar of Eric Arthur Blair), that it is a legitimate literary comparison in this case. I note that no evidence is provided for the assertion otherwise which is posted above. Sadly it seems merely contradicting an opinion counts as negating its validity these days. You seemingly just need enough people to repeat that it isn't true & the matter is settled without evidential debate!

I am unsure that any of this will make the slightest difference to your ingrained, very simplistic, woke attitudes but one can but hope it makes you think a little. It's also given my legs chance to recover from a savage turbo session whilst providing me with a little distraction on a rather wet evening.

Big question is can you resist not allowing me the last word?

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mdavidford replied to GenghisKhan | 3 years ago
4 likes
mickb wrote:

You also miss my point entirely as you rush to virtue signal to each other & one of you even labels me a "jerk" & another an "arsehole".

You didn't make any points. You didn't attempt to engage with the issue at all. You just attempted to undermine and dismiss it by trying to make an unjustified and insulting characterisation of the person raising it. It's a bit rich for you then to complain about personal abuse (even if I wouldn't personally have chosen to use that language).

mickb wrote:

the OP is immediately criticised for the use of one word as if this reveals a deep, ugly truth about his/her character

No-one did that. I would give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they weren't aware of the connotations of the term. Hence the link explaining why it's problematic.

mickb wrote:

Big question is can you resist not allowing me the last word?

A bigger question is why you think you should be entitled to the last word.

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srchar replied to GenghisKhan | 3 years ago
5 likes

Fuck off, Mick. Nobody cares enough about what you think to read a whole screen of your drivel.

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hawkinspeter replied to GenghisKhan | 3 years ago
3 likes

Personally, I don't think that RoubaixCube intended any offense by using that specific word and mdavidford implied that it was an accidental use of a word that carries a lot of baggage. I'm sure that I've used it in the past without knowing that is was offensive (probably quite a while ago, though).

The reason that I called you an arsehole was that you were defending the use of a word that is insultingly racist. I can't really think of any examples where replacing that word with something like 'fool' or 'idiot' doesn't improve the sentence. It's not so much about controlling language as recognising that language changes and as society changes, we become more aware of past mistakes that should be kept in the past.

As to the '1984' comparison, in general I'd agree that control of language can exert control over thinking. However, I don't see how suppressing a thoughtlessly racist word (which entered the language based on mis-understanding the nature of Down's syndrome) can negatively affect people's thought patterns. There's plenty of other words which express racist sentiments with much greater clarity and precision.

I appreciate the trolling attempt (successful?) but I do find your condescending tone to be unnecessary and it detracts from what you're saying.

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Rik Mayals unde... replied to hawkinspeter | 3 years ago
0 likes

Hawkinspeter, 

Whilst I agree that the term is insulting, and can upset many people, is it racist? I'm not really sure. You mention the word used based on mis-understanding the nature of Downs syndrome, but people with Downs syndrome are not a race, or are they? In these politically correct sensitive times, I do think that the word racist is much abused, misunderstood and mis-used, it is also used to shut down discussions. 

Even if used to describe the Mongoloids, is it not the same as describing British as Brits, Scottish as Scots? If so, then it is also racist to use the words 'Brits, Scots'.

I don't know, maybe I am wrong. But I am not defending the use of it in the above post. It is a little crass.

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hawkinspeter replied to Rik Mayals underpants | 3 years ago
3 likes

The term 'Mongoloid' is itself racist (i.e. referring to a 'race' of people) and there's a good page on it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongoloid

(Note that it's usage is considered outdated and possibly offensive)

'Brits' and 'Scots' refer to a geographical grouping of people as well as being an ethnic group (though not a 'race'). You can become Scottish by living in Scotland and you can also remain Scottish by being born there and then living elsewhere. Similarly, 'Mongolian' is not a racist term, but an ethnic and geographical group.

And far from shutting down discussion, this choice of word has completely taken over the discussion and RoubaixCube's original point has been largely ignored. (Though the pot was stirred by mickb)

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GenghisKhan replied to Rik Mayals underpants | 3 years ago
0 likes

Careful biker phil. This is far too close to sensible reasoned analysis. Your post also requires a full reading & some folk admit they don't get past the first sentence!

BTW your points make perfect sense but unfortunately racism refers to anything the social justice warriors like nowadays.

Brave key board warriors like srchar can be on your case in an instant & as he/she admits, they don't even need to read your full post to know you are evil & order you to F off from their presence.

BTW far from complaining about personal abuse (as someone above states) I think you will find that I was relishing it & pointing it up as an indication of the intellectual level from which many of the comments were eminating. Telling someone to F off or calling them a nasty name is generally a final admission that you have no reasoned argument to offer.

mdavidford I am sure that RoubaixCube will be eternally grateful for the education you have kindly provided so that he/she will no longer accidently misuse the english language. When you are as lacking in social graces as we, it's always a pleasure to get input from those who are far wiser. Oh wait a minute...... I thought that it was obvious that I most definitely did not want the last word yet I now see that one person appears to actually think that I did.......and it was you.

At least I know the answer to that "big question". No, you lot couldn't resist. Have to admit (in a no doubt condescending way) I already knew it would be worth checking back.

Thanks for the entertainment. However, what a deluded world we live in when the belief that eliminating a few words will help shape people's inner feelings. Even the fictional characters of the thought police knew you had to go further than just a "newspeak" dictionary. Guess what......those who want to hurt people's feelings will just invent a new word or failing any words use a gesture!

The only solution is room 101. When you truly believe that 2+2=5 then you are cured.

It's been a blast but I am bored now! Shallow arguments with little prospect of witty clever responses. Just pedantic lecturing or simplistic abuse. Not even any comments about OP's original points about the likely impact of Covid on the bike industry in 2021.

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brooksby replied to GenghisKhan | 3 years ago
1 like

mickb - do you have any opinion on the matter of bicycle sales or are you just here to stoke the culture wars? I've read back and I don't think you've had anything to say, just your three posts on here, none of which reference bikes?

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GenghisKhan replied to brooksby | 3 years ago
0 likes

The Mick is dead. Long live the Genghis. (............before you start, please note that this is not intended as a racist slur on Irish people) Simply following the vogue for self identifcation & choosing to do so with a noble, much maligned warrior race......sure you will have fun thinking of suitable pronouns. No real opinion on 2021 bike sales other than I agree that parting with money without receiving goods in a reasonable time frame is not a good idea. If the OP's attitude is replicated enough it may lead to a break down in some business models.

I am really gone from here now. Sad, I know!

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