Is the Tour de France set for its most epic battle in years? road.cc’s ‘expert’ panel predicts who’s going to win cycling’s biggest race

In professional cycling, one day can change the narrative of an entire season.

In early April, in the midst of the cobbled classics campaign, the Tour de France was still being billed – at least in the eyes of the race’s most optimistic marketers – as the first proper battle, at long last, of grand tour racing’s big four: Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogačar, Primož Roglič, and Remco Evenepoel.

Like boxing fans waiting patiently for the sport’s two star heavyweights to finally slug it out in the ring after years of negotiations and trash talk, the stars had finally aligned for cycling’s best stage racers to duke it out at cycling’s biggest race – an eagerly anticipated scenario that, the optimists hoped, would at the very least pose a threat to Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike’s recent Tour hegemony.

 (Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

From our spring standpoint, things were looking promising. Double Tour winner Pogačar had started the season, again, in imperious form and would enter the Tour, hopefully, without the broken wrist that hampered his 2023 challenge.

Four-time grand tour winner Roglič, meanwhile, had moved from Visma to (soon to be Red Bull-backed) Bora-Hansgrohe, ridding himself of the second fiddle he had been playing at the Dutch team following Vingegaard’s rise, while Remco Evenepoel, after a long drawn-out apprenticeship, was finally set to make his Tour debut.

Of course, every hard-headed cycling fan understood that, despite the 2000s-era Premier League lingo, an internal hierarchy was strikingly evident even within the so-called ‘big four’.

(Luis Angel Gomez/SprintCyclingAgency)

For a start, Vingegaard and Visma had proved simply unbeatable at the previous two Tours. For all of Pogačar’s stunning, era-defining all-round ability, the Dane was staking his claim as the preeminent Tour rider of his generation. And that seven-and-a-half-minute gap to Pogačar at the 2023 Tour would need a serious amount of closing before that narrative shifted.

Roglič’s relatively slower start to 2024 also did nothing to assuage the fears that his best chance of winning the Tour was behind him, while Evenepoel – Vuelta win, classics, and rainbow jerseys aside – appeared too erratic over three weeks to mount a serious yellow jersey challenge.

Meanwhile, one glaring asterisk remained fixed to Pogačar’s Tour hopes: the Giro d’Italia.

Even as the Slovenian superstar set in motion his by-now annual destruction of the spring calendar, winning at an alarming rate, the cold facts remained. Despite the best efforts of Contador and Froome, nobody has won the Giro and the Tour in the same year since Marco Pantani in 1998. And trying to break that 26-year duck against the might of a fresh, well-prepared Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike? Pah.

(Zac Williams/SWPix.com)

And then, on 4 April, everything changed.

That horror crash on stage four of the Tour of the Basque Country, on a fast descent 36km from the finish in Legutio, derailed the pre-Tour preparation of three of the big four and even left Vingegaard’s participation in the race, after suffering a collapsed lung, broken collarbone and ribs, in serious doubt.

And while Roglič and Evenepoel returned to action at the Dauphiné in early June – the Bora leader took two typically Roglič-style summit finish wins before just about hanging on for the overall victory, with Evenepoel putting in a consummate time trial performance but looking decidedly patchy in the mountains – Vingegaard’s first time pinning a number on since that Basque Country crash will be on the team bus in Florence on Saturday.

(Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

Pogačar, on the other hand, won the Giro at a canter, beating Roglič’s Bora teammate Dani Martínez by almost ten minutes, and taking six stage wins along the way. By the end, the UAE Team Emirates leader appeared to be simply toying with his rivals, rendering cycling’s second biggest stage race a prolonged interval session.

Instead of the Giro deadening his legs, Pogačar said this week that he’s “never felt so good on the bike” – a scary utterance by a rider whose early season form was so frightening that it won’t be long until journalists start describing Eddy Merckx’s greatest exploits as Pogian.

Evenepoel even said he expects Pogačar to be “unreachable” on the roads of France, and Groupama-FDJ boss Marc Madiot predicted that the Tour could be over in the first three or four days such is the Slovenian’s current dominance.

> Was Tadej Pogačar’s Giro d’Italia victory boring? And does it matter?

And setting aside the 2024 form book, it’s hard not to notice that the omens look good for what just a few months ago felt like an overly optimistic Giro-Tour double attempt.

This year’s Tour gets underway a week earlier than usual, to finish in time for the Olympic juggernaut to roll into France. The last time the Tour was moved to accommodate a major sporting event taking place in the country? That 1998 Tour, which secured Pantani’s grand tour double, and which started in somewhat inauspicious circumstances in Ireland due to France hosting (and winning) the football World Cup.

And, perhaps even more coincidentally, the Giro that kickstarted Il Pirata’s career-defining summer began with a time trial in Nice, the city and discipline that provides the conclusion for this most unique of Tours in three weeks, and where Pogačar could well end that 26-year wait for a Giro-Tour double.

(Zac Williams/SWPix.com)

Of course, that may all depend on the great unknown that is Jonas Vingegaard’s current form.

The two-time Tour winner’s injuries have proved just the tip of the iceberg for a Visma team which has been plagued by bad luck throughout 2024. One of the Dane’s most important lieutenants, Wout van Aert, is also easing himself back into form and fitness after his spring classics-ending crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen, while Sepp Kuss – so often the key to Visma’s dominance in the mountains – was ruled out of the Tour at the last minute due to a serious bout of Covid.

But perhaps the light at the end of the tunnel for Visma is the fact that Vingegaard’s status is unknown. For all of the ominous whispering circulating around Pogačar’s apparent superiority, if the Dane can survive the expected UAE onslaught during the tough opening few stages, he may well race himself into contention by the final, even tougher week.

And, speaking of that final week, we may not learn fully the effects of the Giro on Pogačar’s legs until those long, high, relentless climbs in the Alps and that frenetic finale on the French Riveira.

Who knows, we could be treated to an epic battle for yellow yet.

What’s going to happen over the next three weeks?

In any case, this year’s race will be a Tour like no other.

Necessity is the mother of invention, they say, and the staging of the Olympic Games in Paris has inspired one of the most unique, exciting, and innovative Tour routes in the race’s history.

> Tour de France 2024, your ultimate stage-by-stage guide: From Florence to Nice, here's everything you need to know

A first ever Grand Départ, surprisingly, across the Alps in Italy features arguably one of the hardest opening stages for decades, a relentless jaunt across the Apennines from Florence to Rimini, before a potentially race-defining few days culminates in the Galibier – yes, the Galibier – on stage four as the riders cross back into France.

The 32km of gravel roads on stage nine’s loop around Troyes, coming a few days after the first of two time trials, will provide much-watch excitement (and potentially some big GC moves), while the following weekend’s foray into the Pyrenees has epic written all over it.

And then there’s that final few days in the south of France. With Paris out of the question so close to the Games, Nice – arguably the only city in France with the character to replace the capital as the scene of the Tour’s denouement – makes history as the first location outside Paris to host the race’s final stage in its 121-year history.

And with the rule book thrown out the window, we’re in for a treat, as two short and brutal mountain stages precede the first time trial – a hilly 33.6km affair from Monaco to Nice – to decide the Tour since 1989, Greg LeMond, Laurent Fignon, eight seconds, and all that.

Remco Evenepoel and Matteo Jorgenson on the attack at Paris-Nice (A.S.O./Billy Ceusters)

A surprising route could also lead to some surprising outcomes, of course. Away from the ‘big four’, the big left-field picks could emerge from the favourites’ own teams, with Visma’s Matteo Jorgenson, who pushed Roglič to the brink at the Dauphiné, and UAE’s Tour de Suisse winner Adam Yates both in stellar form in recent weeks.

Ineos’ multi-pronged attack, featuring the increasingly confident Carlos Rodríguez and a resurgent Egan Bernal, will be one to watch out for, though the nagging suspicion remains that the British squad, the dominant Tour force of the 2010s, is doomed to operate a level below this generation’s big hitters.

 (Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

Eight possible sprint stages, meanwhile, will see last year’s green jersey Jasper Philipsen hope to add to his collection, but he’s up against the likes of Mads Pedersen, Dylan Groenwegen, debutant Arnaud De Lie… and a record-chasing Mark Cavendish, of course.

So, with all those narratives ready to pulled at over the course of the next three weeks, we asked our ‘expert’ panel of racing fans in the road.cc office who they reckoned will be wearing yellow in Nice, what they thought about the GC outsiders, who’ll be targeting the other jerseys on offer, and which precocious young gun could potentially spring a surprise.

The panel members were also asked what they thought about the route, how they think the race’s tactical narrative will develop, and what they’re most looking forward to over the next three weeks.

So, without further ado, here are road.cc’s predictions for the one of the most unique and unpredictable editions of the Grande Boucle for years.

Just don’t come crying to us if we steer your fantasy league team in the wrong direction…

Dan Alexander, News Editor

Who’ll be wearing the yellow jersey after the final time trial in Nice? Despite that rather loud voice in the back of my head convinced he used up too much energy at the Giro and will crack in the third week, I’m still going for Tadej Pogačar. My main issue is finding someone to beat him. Jonas Vingegaard can’t win the Tour given his crash injuries and last-minute prep, can he? I’d also have serious question marks about Remco Evenepoel’s Grand Tour GC consistency over three weeks and high mountains. Can Primož Roglič really survive three weeks without crashing or suffering a bad day? I'll go Pogačar, but I’m probably less confident than many.

Who else is going to be on the podium? Carlos Rodríguez and Adam Yates. I'm picking Rodríguez and Yates’ consistency to trump Roglič and Evenepoel who can look spectacular one day and ship time the next. It’s pure guess work speculating about Vingegaard’s condition, but if Pogačar is comfortable in yellow I could see teammate Yates pacing his way to another Tour podium as a happy by-product of UAE's dominance.

(ASO/Thomas Maheux)

What about the other jerseys? Jasper Philipsen, green. Giulio Ciccone, mountains. Rodríguez, white. Boring, I know.

What do you make of the route? Hard but fair. The opening week feels very similar to last year with the tricky weekend followed by a sprint and an early foray into the mountains. Fair play to any fast man staying beyond the finish in Nîmes, unless you’re in or gunning for green, of course.

How will the race play out tactically? UAE look ridiculously strong for the climbs, but will Visma-Lease a Bike sense an opportunity with their rouleur-heavy team of classics men if the wind blows? Then again, Pogačar would probably jump straight to the front and drive the action. I can definitely see the Slovenian going hard early to test Vingegaard and give him no time to grow into the race. The third week’s altitude and heat is where we’ve seen Pog suffer before. Will anyone still be close enough to get him to crack?

Who could spring a surprise? Was Matteo Jorgenson being a very talented cyclist ever a surprise? Visma-Lease a Bike are pretty adamant he's here to learn and we shouldn't expect too much, but the American has been on an extraordinary constant upward curve since joining the team. I’m not saying he can win it (maybe I should be) but top five, perhaps a podium.

Which sprinter will dominate? Philipsen. After last year's dominance and with Mathieu van der Poel back for another lead-out masterclass it’s hard to look past the disaster-turned-master.

What are you most looking forward to? Win number 35 for a certain Manx sprinter... or the equally entertaining post-stage interviews when he doesn't... either or.

Ryan Mallon, Senior News Writer

Who’ll be wearing the yellow jersey after the final time trial in Nice? Tadej Pogačar, clinching the first Giro-Tour double since ‘98. What appeared to be a forlorn hope – and an exercise in reviewing your career goals – when the Slovenian first announced that he was targeting the double, is now a very realistic, and very probable, proposition, thanks to Jonas Vingegaard’s horrible Basque crash.

To be honest, even if the Dane was at 100 per cent, Pogačar’s form throughout 2024 – he’s really living up to the ‘Next Merckx’ billing now – would have been enough for him to enter the race on a 50/50 standing with Vingegaard, anyway. And his team is frighteningly strong too, as UAE came up with a definitive answer to the questions posed by Visma back in 2022, by simply buying a team of race winners to support Pogačar.

Unless disaster strikes, or his overexuberance on some of the Giro’s harder, colder stages comes back to bite him (he’s already picked up Covid, of course), Pogačar will never have a better chance to make history. And winning the Tour this year would really set him on course for maybe the greatest season ever.

Who else is going to be on the podium? Matteo Jorgenson and Primož Roglič. The American Jorgenson has been sensational this year. A Paris-Nice win and second at the Dauphiné (with a bonus cobbled classics win at Dwars door Vlaanderen) would normally cement a rider’s status as a pre-Tour favourite. But his second-fiddle status at Visma could play in his favour – maybe we’ll see a repeat of 2021, when Roglič’s injuries gave Vingegaard his chance to shine, with the American stepping up to fill the Dane’s shoes when he drops out of contention early on? Roglič, meanwhile, will take a decent third, and maybe nab a stage win, too. Adam Yates and Carlos Rodríguez will round out the top five.  Evenepoel will lose minutes in the Pyrenees and then go on the rampage during the final Alpine stages. Which is surely what we all want to see, anyway?

Jorgenson wins Dwars door Vlaanderen solo in April (Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

What about the other jerseys? I’m hoping for a good battle between Philipsen and Pedersen for green, with Mads nicking it by virtue of getting in the break during the last few mountain stages. A ding-dong battle between defending KOM Guilio Ciccone and Romain Bardet in his last Tour for the polka dots would be great, maybe with a side helping of Lenny Martinez. White could be Jorgenson, but Ayuso, Rodríguez, and Evenepoel are all in with a shout.

What do you make of the route? I love it. The stages in Italy and the early crossing of the Alps will be excellent, the Tour’s take on gravel should be interesting, and there’s plenty for the sprinters. Some of the mid-week flatter stages could drag a bit, but there’s enough variation to keep everyone on their toes. Let’s just hope for a tight GC battle – I don’t want ASO put off the idea of a race-ending TT for another 35 years…

How will the race play out tactically? I fully expect UAE to throw everything at Vingegaard in the opening two stages in Italy and on the Galibier, just to crack his morale if anything. If he can stay glued to Pog’s wheel on those days, and then ride himself into shape by the gravel, all bets are off. Then we could see a proper heavyweight clash in the Pyrenees and down to the Riviera, which could be a battle for the ages. Or Vingegaard will crack early, UAE will control, and everyone will fight for scraps. I really hope it’s the former.

Could Stevie Williams repeat his Mur de Huy showing in Bologna on stage two? (Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

Who could spring a surprise? Not that Jorgenson challenging for yellow would be a complete surprise, but it would be something fresh and interesting. Lenny Martinez will shine on the climbs and – whisper it – might find himself fighting for a good GC spot early on. Felix Gall and Derek Gee would be welcome additions to the GC battle, while I can definitely see Stevie Williams and Ben Healy winning stages – maybe even taking yellow in the first week? And again, not much of a surprise, but it would be fun to see Mathieu van der Poel let off the lead-out leash – if anything, just to prove to the Netflix viewers that he’s more than Jasper’s mate.

Which sprinter will dominate? I can see Pedersen getting the better of Philipsen on more than one occasion, with Arnaud De Lie, fresh from his Belgian nationals win, taking a stage as well. Sam Bennett will be in the mix too. And who knows, will everything finally click for Cav?

What are you most looking forward to? The Nice finale – partly because it’ll be a refreshing change from Paris and partly because I’m going to be there! And the Troyes gravel stage will be essential TV viewing.

Jamie Williams, Head of Video

Who’ll be wearing the yellow jersey after the final time trial in Nice? Unless something goes very untoward I can’t see anyone beating Pogačar, he made very talented riders look rather average in the Giro. The Visma-Lease a bike team has had more than its fair share of bad luck this year – time to go for stage wins for them.

Who else is going to be on the podium? Adam Yates in second and a tight battle between Primož Roglič and Rodriguez for third, probably going to be a more interesting battle for the podium spots than for the win!

(Alex Whitehead/SWpix.com)

What about the other jerseys? Green jersey: It’s got to be Mads Pedersen, he looks in good form and can climb just like Sagan in his heyday. White Jersey: Rodriguez vs Ayuso vs Evenepoel, I think Rodriguez will come out on top but it should be a good competition. Polka Dot: Maybe Ciccone again, Trek don’t have a GC contender like other teams so can chuck everything at the breaks.

What do you make of the route? I think it’s a shame it doesn’t finish on the Champs-Élysées. Imagine Cav making it all the way to the finish and getting his record-beating win on the most famous finish in the world.

How will the race play out tactically? Pog will ride off, people will try to follow for the first few days before realising that they’re human and need to race for the other podium spots. The UAE team is looking mighty strong this year leaving little chance for attacks from GC favourites.

Who could spring a surprise? Decathlon AG2R. They’re riding the wave and I think the French team will rack up quite a few stage wins this year.

Which sprinter will dominate? I don't think any one sprinter will, I’d love Arnaud de Lie to pick up a few stages but the Alpecin lead-out train will be hard to beat.

What are you most looking forward to? Other than seeing the Red Bull bikes and kit because they’ve already been revealed… The sprints, I think it’ll be a really good competition this year with Phillipsen, De Lie, Pedersen, Groenewegen, and Cav all coming with strong teams.

Simon MacMichael, road.cc stalwart

Who’ll be wearing the yellow jersey after the final time trial in Nice? Pogačar. 12 months ago, he came to the Tour still recovering from a crash, a year on it’s Jonas Vingegaard in that situation. I’d rather see them go head-to-head fully fit, but that is what I think will make the difference this year. I’m very much Team Pog, he is genuinely among the loveliest people I’ve met while covering this insane sport. I find it hard to warm to Jonas, so there is also a bit of heart versus head in play here.

Who else is going to be on the podium? because he’s still recovering from that crash, I can’t see Vingegaard lasting the three weeks. Primož Roglič runner-up for a Slovenian 1-2, and Rodriguez to complete the podium on the Champs Elys... oh wait a minute, Place Massena.

What about the other jerseys? Green to Philipsen, polka dot to Gaudu, white to Rodríguez (or Pidcock).

What do you make of the route? The past decade or so, starting with Corsica in 2013, ASO has come up with some brutal opening days, and this is no exception. I think the GC will be shaped early on, but the final days, especially with that Stage 21 time trial from Monaco to Nice, could produce some real drama.

(Charly Lopez/ASO)

Who could spring a surprise? I do like a flutter, and it has not passed me by that Alberto Bettiol will be wearing his Italian champion’s jersey for the first time on a stage that starts in his home city and takes in the roads he trains on. Safer bet than Labour winning on 4 July, I reckon, first maillot jaune of the race.

Which sprinter will dominate? Philipsen. He’s in absolutely the right team to put his priorities first without worrying about GC etc, while MvdP can go for the win on some of the more lumpy days.

(A.S.O./Romain Laurent)

What are you most looking forward to? It has to be win number 35, yeah? I’ve met Cav a few times over the years and yes it has been awkward at times ... trust me, you do not want to be on the receiving end of the stare he gives a journo who has just asked what he considers to be a ridiculous question... but I absolutely love the bloke and this would just top his career. It will happen in Turin, proper Italian job.

What do you reckon? Who got their predictions spot on and who’s talking rubbish?

And, if you think you can do better, make sure to join us and pick your own team for our road.cc Fantasy Tour de France…