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Cycling revolution ‘rolling backwards’ according to figures – car use to rise still further

However, National Transport Model consistently overestimates future car use

Figures recently released by the Department for Transport (DfT) forecast more car journeys per person by 2040 with all other forms of travel seeing a drop. The statistics are however based on the National Transport Model (NTM), which has been widely criticised and accused of persistently overestimating future car use.

DfT are forecasting that the average number of annual trips per person by car will rise from 447.6 in 2015 to 507.0 in 2040 with cycle trips falling from 22.1 to 20.5. Oddly, passenger trips by car are also predicted to fall, implying that single occupant driving will become even more common.

The table above was provided in response to a request from Dr Julian Huppert MP, co-chair of the All Party Parliamentary Cycling Group, on behalf of CTC. Roger Geffen, Campaigns and Policy Director at CTC claimed the figures reflected poorly on the Prime Minister’s promised ‘cycling revolution’.

“These figures show the glaring mismatch between the Prime Minister’s aspiration for a ‘cycling revolution’ and the DfT’s predictions where the ‘revolution’ has failed to start and is even rolling backwards.”

The statistics are however based on the widely-criticised National Transport Model (NTM). Phil Goodwin, emeritus professor of transport at University College London, analysed NTM figures for a 2012 article in Local Transport Today and concluded that “for 25 years car traffic stubbornly refused to behave according to expectations”. The article featured the table below indicating successive downwards revision of the forecasts.

NTM figures also assume no change in government policy beyond that already announced. This means that the department’s Cycling Delivery Plan is not factored in as it is still in development.

So perhaps the picture isn’t quite so bleak. But writing on the CTC’s website last year, Chris Peck highlighted one particular danger. While the NTM is intended to be a guide, it is treated by policymakers as an inevitable outcome to be planned for.

“This is the 'predict and provide' approach that, in essence, is a self-fulfilling prophecy: your model predicts that car use will continue untrammelled, and further predicts huge congestion problems that might result. So, in order to prevent that congestion, you build new roads and plan new developments around everyone driving for 2/3rds of their trips and, decades later, hey presto: that's what happens!”

CTC’s Roger Geffen would like to see the Government taking a different approach.

“Public health professionals are flagging up an obesity time bomb. Big business is calling for investment in cycling. Now is the time for Government to provide the funding, leadership and ambition in their 10 year cycle plan that CTC has long been calling for.”

Alex has written for more cricket publications than the rest of the road.cc team combined. Despite the apparent evidence of this picture, he doesn't especially like cake.

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8 comments

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agingbrit | 10 years ago
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And this says nothing about self-drive cars impact and eBikes - both of which will have transforming impacts and then even bigger is telecommuting.

You need way more authoritative guessing than what their dumb charts show. For example - figuring out how many people will be telecommuting for work, and that impact on weekly travelled miles, and hence commuting and exercise patterns.

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Must be Mad | 10 years ago
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I'm all for long term thinking and planning, but this is just pulling numbers out of a hat.

Surly the point is to start off with the numbers you want, then devise a plan to deliver?

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mrmo replied to Must be Mad | 10 years ago
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Must be Mad wrote:

I'm all for long term thinking and planning, but this is just pulling numbers out of a hat.

Surly the point is to start off with the numbers you want, then devise a plan to deliver?

Exactly, and I am sure the shareholders in Hanson, La Farge Tarmac, etc are perfectly happy with the model.

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Matt eaton replied to Must be Mad | 10 years ago
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Must be Mad wrote:

I'm all for long term thinking and planning, but this is just pulling numbers out of a hat.

Surly the point is to start off with the numbers you want, then devise a plan to deliver?

Exactly, and this is where we differ from counties who have great transport models. Decide what you want to acheive and design infrastrucure to deliver against these aims.

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jacknorell | 10 years ago
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The DfT, consistently misinterpreting the data since 1978*

* May have made this up.

They're like financial analysts trying to figure out stock market movements; the good ones admit they're wrong.

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sean1 | 10 years ago
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Yet from the House of Commons report on cycling in June 2013 ;

Quote:

Since 2007 the amount of vehicle miles travelled by bicycle has increased annually. 19% more vehicle (bicycle) miles were travelled in 2011 than in 2007. The proportion of total vehicle miles taken on bicycle increased from 0.8% in 2007 to 1.0% in 2011

http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/...

Obviously can't let some facts get in the way of the DfT car-centric traffic model.

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bikebot | 10 years ago
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Something else that isn't reflected in these forecasts is how we're living. Urbanisation is increasing, people are getting sucked back into our cities from the suburbs, reversing the trend of 40 years ago.

As a resident of London, I can see the building boom of new homes every day, and they're going UP, literally. Big tall buildings with very limited parking space. The demographics of the people buying those homes are the same ones that the car industry is having kittens over.

That change will filter through to transport, and politically that will probably mean an awful lot of voters wanting better public transport and fed up with traffic that is mostly produced by people that live outside the cities.

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mrmo | 10 years ago
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Quote:

Phil Goodwin, emeritus professor of transport at University College London, analysed NTM figures for a 2012 article in Local Transport Today and concluded that “for 25 years car traffic stubbornly refused to behave according to expectations”.

after 25years, if the results don't match the model you would think someone might have twigged the model was wrong....

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