news

Brexit.png

Hard Brexit and a Trump presidency - what do they mean for the UK cycling industry and your next bike?

We've been mulling over the big political events at road.cc - bikes will cost more, for a start...

Tue, Jan 24, 2017 13:44

Even by the standards of what has been a tumultuous few months, last week was a landmark one in politics on both sides of the Atlantic. Last Tuesday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed plans for a hard Brexit, and Friday saw Donald Trump inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States.

While both raise far more important issues than what they mean for the bicycle market, it did get us thinking here at road.cc about their potential impact on the industry – and on what your next bike might be and where it might come from.

In short, we think bikes are on the whole going to get more expensive, and especially those in the middle to high end of the market. We’ve already seen price rises from major brands due to the fall in value of sterling since June’s referendum, but the UK’s future trading arrangements with the EU, and what happens across the Atlantic, could also play a role.

Our conversation was prompted by a couple of articles published on BikeBiz last Wednesday written by its executive editor and cycling author Carlton Reid. One looked at how the Trump presidency might affect US bike brands, including Cannondale, Specialized and Trek.

The other followed a suggestion by Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson that if India were to lift tariffs on goods such as Scotch Whisky, the UK could reciprocate by doing away with them on goods including bicycles.

(Whether, a few years down the line, what’s left of the UK will have any influence over trade deals involving whisky made in what might then be an independent Scotland is a detail that seems to have escaped Johnson.)

Where bikes come from

The 2010 report on the British Cycling Economy, compiled by the LSE and commissioned by Sky and British Cycling, said that in 2010, some 3.7 million bicycles were sold in the UK, with a total retail value of £1.62 billion. UK-made bikes accounted for £51 million of that figure – just 3 per cent of the total.

Where do the other 97 per cent come from? Well, as this article from the blogger Inner Ring published in 2012 highlights, even if you are buying a mid-to-high-end bike from a company such as the US’s Specialized, say, or Italy’s Pinarello, the likelihood is that the frame will have been made in China or Taiwan.

Indeed, the UK is Taiwan’s third largest export destination for bicycles, after the US and the Netherlands, and the country claims to have a 26.1 per cent share of the British market.

Other Asian countries including Cambodia are also seeing their bicycle industries grow. India, too, has an important bicycle manufacturing industry – and it is one that is now targeting growth in Europe, including the UK.

Hero Cycles, one of the world’s largest bicycle makers – it vies for top spot by volume with Taiwan's Giant – recently announced plans for a global design centre in Manchester, where last year it bought Avocet Sports, which became its first purchase outside India.

Steel tycoon Sanjeev Gupta, meanwhile, said he plans to revitalise the UK’s own bicycle manufacturing industry through the acquisition of West Midlands-based Trillion Cycles, which he has moved to a new base in Leamington Spa.

Contract manufacturing extends to components, too – the saddle on your bike, for example, was almost certainly made by Velo at one of its factories in its home country Taiwan, or in China.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that your bike will have a big “Made in China” sticker on it. World Trade Organization (WTO) rules allow that in certain cases where finished goods are assembled in a certain country even if many of the components come from elsewhere, that the country of assembly is deemed the country of final manufacture, so you could instead have “Made in Italy.”

What about fees and duties?

Which brings us to tariffs. A fiendishly complicated set of rules governing trade between different countries and which, while typically not involving the end consumer – they are absorbed along the way in the supply chain – will, once we leave the EU, raise the price of bikes coming from the continent.

By how much is anyone’s guess. The director-general of the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo, speaking before last June’s referendum, warned that “Russia’s accession to the WTO took 20 years.”

The UK is in a different, but unprecedented, position. We are a member of the WTO in our own right and a part of the EU. Our trade deals with other countries are negotiated through the European Commission, however, so we are in effect starting from scratch.

Azevêdo warned: “It will be a very high risk bet to hope that negotiations would be quickly completed and that negotiations would be uneventful,”

Currently, the single market means that there are no trade tariffs on goods, including bicycles, accessories and clothing, imported to the UK from fellow EU member states, and vice-versa. Clearly, that is going to change.

Some have suggested that as an interim measure following Brexit, the UK and countries in the EU, pending an actual deal being struck, trade on the basis of the tariffs generally applying to non-EU countries.

So, for bicycles – complete or frames – that’s 14 per cent. On parts and components, the standard tariff is 4.7 per cent. That means the cost to the consumer of bikes deemed to have been made in Europe is likely to rise – and you already have to factor in price increases that have happened due to the decline in value of the pound since June.

Cheap bikes from China?

The EU currently has a punitive trade tariff of 48.5 per cent on bicycles made in China, to help protect the bicycle industries of its member states by preventing the market being flooded with cheap Chinese-produced bikes – which is what Reid predicts on BikeBiz may happen in the UK once we have left.

That means that at the lower end of the market, we could see cheap bikes from China coming in. And with incomes likely to be squeezed and the cost of living rising, that could prove attractive to cash-strapped consumers.

(As a side note, the ongoing row between the EU and China over tariffs on bicycles is the chief reason that WTO talks on the proposed Environmental Goods Agreement, which could reduce or remove tariffs on them altogether, failed last month.)

Price rises, higher household outgoings and general economic uncertainty are likely of course to have another effect on the UK cycling market – people deferring or even abandoning planned purchases, or downgrading to a different, less highly specced model than the one they may have initially planned to buy.

Over in the United States, of course, tariffs have regularly been in the headlines in recent months, with Trump threatening to use them as a so-called “border tax” to discourage the practice of “off-shoring” – American businesses having goods made in factories abroad, then importing them to sell to domestic consumers.

While it is the motor industry that has received most attention in this regard, with the incoming president threatening crippling tariffs on companies such Ford unless they repatriate production, other sectors too will come into the firing line if Trump pushes through with his plans.

(Incidentally, Trump's claim that offshoring is killing American jobs is controversial, to say the least.)

Reid points out on BikeBiz that 98 per cent of the bicycles sold in the US originate from abroad, the vast majority in the Far East – and if the country’s bike industry comes into the sights of the Trump administration, it would be ill-equipped to repatriate production.

The result of that, Reid says, would be higher prices and scarcer availability – something that would also affect the British, not just the US market.

Whether Trump will follow through on his rhetoric remains to be seen, and the whole issue of Brexit of course is riddled with uncertainty – just today, the Supreme Court has ruled against the government and said that Parliament must debate whether to trigger Article 50.

In the meantime, if you are itching to get your hands on a new ride, you can take a look at road.cc technical editor David Arthur’s article from last week in which he lists some Brexit-beating bargains currently to be had.

Brexit

Donald Trump

China

India

Add new comment

61 comments

davel replied to JoeNobody | 7 years ago

2 likes

JoeNobody wrote:

davel wrote:

Seems to me that I was addressing a poster whose every 3rd post on unrelated threads was a sneer about the type of people who voted for Brexit.

And I was addressing you, what of it? Such is the nature of a public (ish) forum - anyone can comment on anyone elses posts.

Quote:

But please do continue to talk in generalisations and stereotypes. I'm sure that's the best way to resolve the debate and the wounds created by the smorgasbord of shit that came from entrusting politicians to run referendum campaigns.

I'm not trying to resolve any debate or wounds created by any means. All I did was relate something you said to my experience of almost all Leave voters I engaged with (to be fair it wasn't many because I don't know many). About 80% of the Leave voters I know voted through an irrational hatred of the EU. They presented all sorts of "evidence" to support their views, but dismissed out of hand any real evidence that proved their own views to be wrong (info from my independent sources vs info from their biased sources), often resorting to insults instead of engaging in debate, let alone considering that they might actually be wrong. For those people it was purely an emotional decision, that they tried to justify with, what I now know to be, "alternative facts".

Wasn't really my point: but, anyway, we've just had pages of entrenched shit already deleted from this (primarily from a Remainer), and I see no evidence that this will advance the debate.

Just be aware that it was probably as much of an emotional decision by Remainers, too. It surely isn't logic or reason that sees such a large section of the population seemingly invested in the country running to ruin purely to have them proved right?

And Remain had their own alternative facts. Where's the emergency budget? Neither side has a monopoly on lies or idiots.

urbane replied to handlebarcam | 7 years ago

1 like

handlebarcam wrote:

davel wrote:

So fiction is being peddled as 'documentary' now? Pesky Brexiters with their lies... hang on.

Describing two obviously fictional films as "documentaries" is obviously a joke.

Spending months campaigning in front of buses and posters saying Brexit will give £350 million per week more the NHS or that the EU has anything to do with non-EU immigration - those are lies. As is claiming now to have a mandate to leave the Single Market when a year ago they said it was all about the political union.

Those are such barefaced lies, which go so far beyond normal political spin (e.g. the remain campaign's "Project Fear"), that many would argue they invalidate such a narrow victory entirely. And if anyone thinks British-born Europeans are ever going to forget this, even if Britain were to become the richest vassal state of the United Kleptocracy of Trumpania, then they're crackers.

You are not dealing with just the dated old Right now, the alt-Right exists now and easily dismantle Collectivist BS like this!

The NHS is in trouble because stupid New Labour pumped wages rather than resources, more old people cost a lot to care for, as do loads of sick or excessively breeding, benefits immigrants, and their dependants, no thanks to suicidal EU immigration rules!

Are you so naive as to not to see that the majority of non-EU immigrants are going through the EU to get to the Channel Tunnel, sometimes with lax EU citizenship, and lack of proper border checks and EU immigration rules get in the way of rejecting/deporting them?!

President Trump looks like a much less corrupt, disruptive breath of fresh air to start clearing the US Career Political Class smog; as promised, he really is busy draining the swamp of the Collectivist/Corporate corruptions allowed and grown by previous presidents of both quite corrupt parties. It looks like he'd rather shrink the USA Empire (e.g. end NATO) and just wants to trade fairly with the UK.

If EU countries wants to trade with us, they had better swallow their pride and trade fairly, or they will face WTO penalties, tariffs, or we just buy much cheaper elsewhere without the current EU tariffs, and their businesses profits shrink dramatically!

beezus fufoon replied to urbane | 7 years ago

0 likes

urbane wrote:

handlebarcam wrote:

davel wrote:

So fiction is being peddled as 'documentary' now? Pesky Brexiters with their lies... hang on.

Describing two obviously fictional films as "documentaries" is obviously a joke.

Spending months campaigning in front of buses and posters saying Brexit will give £350 million per week more the NHS or that the EU has anything to do with non-EU immigration - those are lies. As is claiming now to have a mandate to leave the Single Market when a year ago they said it was all about the political union.

Those are such barefaced lies, which go so far beyond normal political spin (e.g. the remain campaign's "Project Fear"), that many would argue they invalidate such a narrow victory entirely. And if anyone thinks British-born Europeans are ever going to forget this, even if Britain were to become the richest vassal state of the United Kleptocracy of Trumpania, then they're crackers.

You are not dealing with just the dated old Right now, the alt-Right exists now and easily dismantle Collectivist BS like this!

The NHS is in trouble because stupid New Labour pumped wages rather than resources, more old people cost a lot to care for, as do loads of sick or excessively breeding, benefits immigrants, and their dependants, no thanks to suicidal EU immigration rules!

Are you so naive as to not to see that the majority of non-EU immigrants are going through the EU to get to the Channel Tunnel, sometimes with lax EU citizenship, and lack of proper border checks and EU immigration rules get in the way of rejecting/deporting them?!

President Trump looks like a much less corrupt, disruptive breath of fresh air to start clearing the US Career Political Class smog; as promised, he really is busy draining the swamp of the Collectivist/Corporate corruptions allowed and grown by previous presidents of both quite corrupt parties. It looks like he'd rather shrink the USA Empire (e.g. end NATO) and just wants to trade fairly with the UK.

If EU countries wants to trade with us, they had better swallow their pride and trade fairly, or they will face WTO penalties, tariffs, or we just buy much cheaper elsewhere without the current EU tariffs, and their businesses profits shrink dramatically!

Firstly, as I understand it, Ireland and the United Kingdom choose, on a case-by-case basis, whether or not to adopt EU rules on immigration, visa and asylum policies. It was the Tories who removed embarcation controls to the legislation in 1995.

Equally, both India and Australia are already demanding a relaxation of border controls if we want a trade deal with them post brexit.

Secondly, as you use the word naive, are you really going to claim that Trump and the WTO are all about "fairness"?

- the phrase, "excessively breeding, benefits immigrants" reveals your true sentiment concerning what's "fair". Both the tories and blairites know that this country's smooth functioning (and the NHS) is heavily dependant on cheap migrant workers, and that the real money is in the financial sector - leaving the EU has just made it more costly to achieve exactly the same result you would've got anyway, the only issue here is how they're going to sell that to you.

beezus fufoon replied to davel | 7 years ago

1 like

davel wrote:

handlebarcam wrote:

Longer term, the wider effects can be summarised by a couple of cycling-related documentaries. For Brexit, see Bicycle Thieves, the story of people rendered so poor by an incompetent right-wing government's rejection of peaceful European civilisation, that they have to steal bicycles to scrape a living. For Trump, see Fifteen Million Merits, the Black Mirror episode that depicts a society ruled by reality TV bastards, and in which the citizenry have been given meaningless jobs that machines can do: generating power by pedalling exercise bikes.

So fiction is being peddled as 'documentary' now? Pesky Brexiters with their lies... hang on.

As a debate, this topic is the pits. I've never known one as polarised in the UK. Most people are so biased and entrenched they have absolutely no contribution to make other than make their position obvious through insults, sneering or unfounded prophecies of doom. The majority of posts on this thread may as well have been either 'Brexit' or 'Remain' and left the rest of the shit for facebook.

I dunno, there was the miner's strike, poll tax, criminal justice act, the iraq war, etc. - maybe the only difference here is the circus of democracy created by the referendum amplifying the illusion that anyone actually cares for the opinions of others - I certainly wouldn't ride a bike made not by experts but by the general will of the populace...

Personally I'm a bit indifferent to the choice between scrabbling for the crumbs dropped by a neoliberal elite or "giving the country back" to people who can barely form a sentence in their mother tongue and who are blissfuly unaware they've voted for a neocon elite instead...

I predict we may well have found a good use for cycle helmets at last!

Sniffer | 7 years ago

3 likes

It is a while since a contibutors first 4 posts have generated as much bile.

Not that watching goading is much fun for the rest of either.

peted76 | 7 years ago

3 likes

That escalted quickly...

Back to the article, I know I'll probably get called a facist for daring to look forward, but wouldn't it be a 'good thing' for us if we did not have the current EU Tax of 48% on bikes from China?

I don't care what country my bikes 'label says it's from', it's likely to be mostly made in China anyway.. (I ridce a Giant with Shimano my bike is as chinese as it gets, my Garmin is made in china although it's a swiss company)...

..if this is a simple thought from a simple person so be it, but faced with the thought of 15% hike on bike sales from European countries or a 48% fall in prices from china.. I think capitalisim will vote with it's dwindling wallet. Yes it means all the 'european brands' we're used to will be more exspensive but change is coming and this might not this be a good one for us.. ?

ibike | 7 years ago

2 likes

I’m more worried about the impact on building cycle infrastructure than the cost of new bikes. Brexit/Trumpism does seem to be the very antithesis of everything to do with riding a bike!

Google past Presidents (Bush, Clinton, Obama) and they all rode bikes aplenty. Do the same for the Donald… nothing!

muhasib replied to ibike | 7 years ago

1 like

ibike wrote:

I’m more worried about the impact on building cycle infrastructure than the cost of new bikes. Brexit/Trumpism does seem to be the very antithesis of everything to do with riding a bike!

Google past Presidents (Bush, Clinton, Obama) and they all rode bikes aplenty. Do the same for the Donald… nothing!

Bit harsh on the President, I don't think any of the others actually sponsored their own World Tour event as he did.

Mungecrundle | 7 years ago

4 likes

If all those bastards who seem hell bent on crapping up the entire World for the rest of us just got together for a pleasant cycle ride in the sunshine...

psling | 7 years ago

2 likes

I can see Trump having to stand down as President having been made bankrupt following a lengthy legal battle with Specialized after trying to introduce some specialized policies in the US of A and I can see a new 28" wheel standard being introduced to UK (assuming still UK) from India...

davel | 7 years ago

3 likes

"Price rises, higher household outgoings and general economic uncertainty..."

Sounds like the perfect storm to push cycle commuting, and bike journeys in general, into.

Simmo72 | 7 years ago

7 likes

Perhaps wiggle will stop including haribo (spanish) and replace with something british (pork pie?).

Being totally opposed to all of this stupidfity and knowing the mountain to climb trying negotiate 60,000 agreements without sending the economy into freefall, but maybe this will force a resurgance in UK bike manufacturing, seeing as buying overseas will be overpriced to those of us left with a job.

muhasib replied to Simmo72 | 7 years ago

0 likes

Simmo72 wrote:

Perhaps wiggle will stop including haribo (spanish) and replace with something british (pork pie?).

Being totally opposed to all of this stupidfity and knowing the mountain to climb trying negotiate 60,000 agreements without sending the economy into freefall, but maybe this will force a resurgance in UK bike manufacturing, seeing as buying overseas will be overpriced to those of us left with a job.

When is Haribo Spanish ? I thought it was made in Yorkshire but German owned. Anybody know?

psling replied to muhasib | 7 years ago

0 likes

muhasib wrote:

When is Haribo Spanish ? I thought it was made in Yorkshire but German owned. Anybody know?

I always belived them to be Belgian (along with Pringles, Poirot & Wiggins)

Edit: but would appear to be from Bonn, Germany.

peakingintwomonths replied to psling | 7 years ago

2 likes

psling wrote:

muhasib wrote:

When is Haribo Spanish ? I thought it was made in Yorkshire but German owned. Anybody know?

I always belived them to be Belgian (along with Pringles, Poirot & Wiggins)

Edit: but would appear to be from Bonn, Germany.

Don't wish to divert from an otherwise entertaining vitriolic spat, but German company, made in Pontefract

Simmo72 replied to muhasib | 7 years ago

4 likes

muhasib wrote:

Simmo72 wrote:

Perhaps wiggle will stop including haribo (spanish) and replace with something british (pork pie?).

Being totally opposed to all of this stupidfity and knowing the mountain to climb trying negotiate 60,000 agreements without sending the economy into freefall, but maybe this will force a resurgance in UK bike manufacturing, seeing as buying overseas will be overpriced to those of us left with a job.

When is Haribo Spanish ? I thought it was made in Yorkshire but German owned. Anybody know?

Yep, you are right. German origin, my bad, I should have got a research job on the leave campaign.

dafyddp | 7 years ago

17 likes

I think the costs of bicycles will be the least of our worries. Without wanting to sound facetious, I believe many right-of-centre politicians view cycling as the very sort of European activity they want to see the back of. The present Transport Minister is clearly no fan.

I'm fearful that the modest improvements we've seen in cycling infrastructure in many cities will grind to a halt. UKIP and their ilk make no secret of their support for the downtrodden motorist. Don't be suprised when hard-won cycle paths are torm-up in favour of on-street car-parking, and the call for cycle registration/insurance gets louder.

davel replied to dafyddp | 7 years ago

4 likes

dafyddp wrote:

I think the costs of bicycles will be the least of our worries. Without wanting to sound facetious, I believe many right-of-centre politicians view cycling as the very sort of European activity they want to see the back of. The present Transport Minister is clearly no fan.

I'm fearful that the modest improvements we've seen in cycling infrastructure in many cities will grind to a halt. UKIP and their ilk make no secret of their support for the downtrodden motorist. Don't be suprised when hard-won cycle paths are torm-up in favour of on-street car-parking, and the call for cycle registration/insurance gets louder.

Surely nobody except our UKIP tax haven overlords will be able to afford cars in this dystopia? We won't be able to afford to run the trains or even buy a ticket, so...

Cyclists reclaim the streets!

Look, nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen.

This situation is so complex that even when you scratch the surface you should be seeing the potential for unintended consequences everywhere - we've seen one example of a pretty obvious one come from the supreme court today.

The only solid prediction that can be made is that lots of people who should have stopped being paid lots of money to make predictions will continue to make inaccurate predictions and continue to be paid lots of money.

Edit: well done, road.cc, continuing the fine media tradition of conflating *everything* with Brexit is having a fine effect on the comments.

Or maybe it's a trap, set up to draw us in and fry us, like an insectazap. Maybe everyone who comments on this thread will be banhammered. In which case, chapeau... was nice knowing you...

Bikebikebike replied to davel | 7 years ago

1 like

davel wrote:

dafyddp wrote:

I think the costs of bicycles will be the least of our worries. Without wanting to sound facetious, I believe many right-of-centre politicians view cycling as the very sort of European activity they want to see the back of. The present Transport Minister is clearly no fan.

I'm fearful that the modest improvements we've seen in cycling infrastructure in many cities will grind to a halt. UKIP and their ilk make no secret of their support for the downtrodden motorist. Don't be suprised when hard-won cycle paths are torm-up in favour of on-street car-parking, and the call for cycle registration/insurance gets louder.

Surely nobody except our UKIP tax haven overlords will be able to afford cars in this dystopia? We won't be able to afford to run the trains or even buy a ticket, so...

Cyclists reclaim the streets!

Look, nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen.

This situation is so complex that even when you scratch the surface you should be seeing the potential for unintended consequences everywhere - we've seen one example of a pretty obvious one come from the supreme court today.

The only solid prediction that can be made is that lots of people who should have stopped being paid lots of money to make predictions will continue to make inaccurate predictions and continue to be paid lots of money.

Edit: well done, road.cc, continuing the fine media tradition of conflating *everything* with Brexit is having a fine effect on the comments.

Or maybe it's a trap, set up to draw us in and fry us, like an insectazap. Maybe everyone who comments on this thread will be banhammered. In which case, chapeau... was nice knowing you...

No. You can't just say "it's complicated" and "I don't believe experts" and claim that no-one can say what will happen. Broad conclusions are certainly possible, and with the current direction it's clear that our economy will take a big hit.

srchar replied to Bikebikebike | 7 years ago

3 likes

Bikebikebike wrote:

Broad conclusions are certainly possible, and with the current direction it's clear that our economy will take a big hit.

I'm not so sure about this. Early in life, I switched from an engineering job to a career in specialist IT, developing trading platforms for investment banks.

Friends I have from my days in manufacturing report that business is booming; some of them can barely produce enough product to fulfil orders from the US and Canada.

Conversely, banking is dead. People are being laid off left, right and centre. The jobs boards are bare.

The economic outlook very much depends on what industry you are in.

Bikebikebike replied to srchar | 7 years ago

1 like

srchar wrote:

Bikebikebike wrote:

Broad conclusions are certainly possible, and with the current direction it's clear that our economy will take a big hit.

I'm not so sure about this. Early in life, I switched from an engineering job to a career in specialist IT, developing trading platforms for investment banks.

Friends I have from my days in manufacturing report that business is booming; some of them can barely produce enough product to fulfil orders from the US and Canada.

Conversely, banking is dead. People are being laid off left, right and centre. The jobs boards are bare.

The economic outlook very much depends on what industry you are in.

Yeah, but we still have access to the single market, and are trading under the terms agreed by the EU with other countries. The temporary boost from a weak pound is not going to sweep all the rest of the problems under the carpet.

srchar replied to Bikebikebike | 7 years ago

2 likes

Bikebikebike wrote:

Yeah, but we still have access to the single market, and are trading under the terms agreed by the EU with other countries. The temporary boost from a weak pound is not going to sweep all the rest of the problems under the carpet.

I can't see us having worse trading arrangements with the US or Canada, post-Brexit. Trump has made some very favourable noises about UK trade. He's also come out with a lot of protectionist guff as well, but that seems to have been aimed at developing economies. As for Canada, the new Canada-EU trade deal isn't in force yet.

RTB replied to Bikebikebike | 7 years ago

2 likes

Bikebikebike wrote:

srchar wrote:

Bikebikebike wrote:

Broad conclusions are certainly possible, and with the current direction it's clear that our economy will take a big hit.

I'm not so sure about this. Early in life, I switched from an engineering job to a career in specialist IT, developing trading platforms for investment banks.

Friends I have from my days in manufacturing report that business is booming; some of them can barely produce enough product to fulfil orders from the US and Canada.

Conversely, banking is dead. People are being laid off left, right and centre. The jobs boards are bare.

The economic outlook very much depends on what industry you are in.

Yeah, but we still have access to the single market, and are trading under the terms agreed by the EU with other countries. The temporary boost from a weak pound is not going to sweep all the rest of the problems under the carpet.

The same single market that has the EU selling more to the UK than they buy from us. And you want to quote economic literacy lol.

Let me tell you the real politik. A lot of has-beens and wannabes will have their 15 minutes in the sun over the next two years and then the power brokers will move in come deal time and tell it how it will be. This will include all of the heavy German industrials and financials instructing Frau Merkel (or her replacement) what they will do to ensure a tariff-free trade arrangement like the common market EEC should have been not this EU monstrosity. French will follow as the minor partner and in any case they may already be on their own Frexit path by then.

Dnnnnnn replied to RTB | 7 years ago

0 likes

RTB wrote:

Bikebikebike wrote:

srchar wrote:

Bikebikebike wrote:

Broad conclusions are certainly possible, and with the current direction it's clear that our economy will take a big hit.

I'm not so sure about this. Early in life, I switched from an engineering job to a career in specialist IT, developing trading platforms for investment banks.

Friends I have from my days in manufacturing report that business is booming; some of them can barely produce enough product to fulfil orders from the US and Canada.

Conversely, banking is dead. People are being laid off left, right and centre. The jobs boards are bare.

The economic outlook very much depends on what industry you are in.

Yeah, but we still have access to the single market, and are trading under the terms agreed by the EU with other countries. The temporary boost from a weak pound is not going to sweep all the rest of the problems under the carpet.

The same single market that has the EU selling more to the UK than they buy from us. And you want to quote economic literacy lol.

Let me tell you the real politik. A lot of has-beens and wannabes will have their 15 minutes in the sun over the next two years and then the power brokers will move in come deal time and tell it how it will be. This will include all of the heavy German industrials and financials instructing Frau Merkel (or her replacement) what they will do to ensure a tariff-free trade arrangement like the common market EEC should have been not this EU monstrosity. French will follow as the minor partner and in any case they may already be on their own Frexit path by then.

While I'm loathe to continue this argument, I feel I should point out the process for the EU agreeing a Brexit deal. I've no doubt German industry wants easy access to the UK market and will pressure their own government to pursue that. I also realise that the German government is perhaps 'more equal than the others' in the EU. But there are 26 other member states and the agreement of 20 of them is required for a deal with the UK. Many of them have very different priorities than selling BMWs: https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-veto-brexit-deal.

There are lots of competing forces at play at the moment. As I suggested at the beginning, no-one really knows how it will all play out. If you disagree, how about popping down to the bookies and uploading a photo of your slip for us?

drosco replied to Bikebikebike | 7 years ago

2 likes

Bikebikebike wrote:

davel wrote:

dafyddp wrote:

I think the costs of bicycles will be the least of our worries. Without wanting to sound facetious, I believe many right-of-centre politicians view cycling as the very sort of European activity they want to see the back of. The present Transport Minister is clearly no fan.

I'm fearful that the modest improvements we've seen in cycling infrastructure in many cities will grind to a halt. UKIP and their ilk make no secret of their support for the downtrodden motorist. Don't be suprised when hard-won cycle paths are torm-up in favour of on-street car-parking, and the call for cycle registration/insurance gets louder.

Surely nobody except our UKIP tax haven overlords will be able to afford cars in this dystopia? We won't be able to afford to run the trains or even buy a ticket, so...

Cyclists reclaim the streets!

Look, nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen.

This situation is so complex that even when you scratch the surface you should be seeing the potential for unintended consequences everywhere - we've seen one example of a pretty obvious one come from the supreme court today.

The only solid prediction that can be made is that lots of people who should have stopped being paid lots of money to make predictions will continue to make inaccurate predictions and continue to be paid lots of money.

Edit: well done, road.cc, continuing the fine media tradition of conflating *everything* with Brexit is having a fine effect on the comments.

Or maybe it's a trap, set up to draw us in and fry us, like an insectazap. Maybe everyone who comments on this thread will be banhammered. In which case, chapeau... was nice knowing you...

No. You can't just say "it's complicated" and "I don't believe experts" and claim that no-one can say what will happen. Broad conclusions are certainly possible, and with the current direction it's clear that our economy will take a big hit.

That's really not clear at all. Sorry.

Bikebikebike replied to drosco | 7 years ago

0 likes

drosco wrote:

Bikebikebike wrote:

davel wrote:

dafyddp wrote:

I think the costs of bicycles will be the least of our worries. Without wanting to sound facetious, I believe many right-of-centre politicians view cycling as the very sort of European activity they want to see the back of. The present Transport Minister is clearly no fan.

I'm fearful that the modest improvements we've seen in cycling infrastructure in many cities will grind to a halt. UKIP and their ilk make no secret of their support for the downtrodden motorist. Don't be suprised when hard-won cycle paths are torm-up in favour of on-street car-parking, and the call for cycle registration/insurance gets louder.

Surely nobody except our UKIP tax haven overlords will be able to afford cars in this dystopia? We won't be able to afford to run the trains or even buy a ticket, so...

Cyclists reclaim the streets!

Look, nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen.

This situation is so complex that even when you scratch the surface you should be seeing the potential for unintended consequences everywhere - we've seen one example of a pretty obvious one come from the supreme court today.

The only solid prediction that can be made is that lots of people who should have stopped being paid lots of money to make predictions will continue to make inaccurate predictions and continue to be paid lots of money.

Edit: well done, road.cc, continuing the fine media tradition of conflating *everything* with Brexit is having a fine effect on the comments.

Or maybe it's a trap, set up to draw us in and fry us, like an insectazap. Maybe everyone who comments on this thread will be banhammered. In which case, chapeau... was nice knowing you...

No. You can't just say "it's complicated" and "I don't believe experts" and claim that no-one can say what will happen. Broad conclusions are certainly possible, and with the current direction it's clear that our economy will take a big hit.

That's really not clear at all. Sorry.

To you, possibly. To anyone with a grasp of economics, it is clear.

drosco replied to Bikebikebike | 7 years ago

3 likes

Bikebikebike wrote:

drosco wrote:

Bikebikebike wrote:

davel wrote:

dafyddp wrote:

I think the costs of bicycles will be the least of our worries. Without wanting to sound facetious, I believe many right-of-centre politicians view cycling as the very sort of European activity they want to see the back of. The present Transport Minister is clearly no fan.

I'm fearful that the modest improvements we've seen in cycling infrastructure in many cities will grind to a halt. UKIP and their ilk make no secret of their support for the downtrodden motorist. Don't be suprised when hard-won cycle paths are torm-up in favour of on-street car-parking, and the call for cycle registration/insurance gets louder.

Surely nobody except our UKIP tax haven overlords will be able to afford cars in this dystopia? We won't be able to afford to run the trains or even buy a ticket, so...

Cyclists reclaim the streets!

Look, nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen.

This situation is so complex that even when you scratch the surface you should be seeing the potential for unintended consequences everywhere - we've seen one example of a pretty obvious one come from the supreme court today.

The only solid prediction that can be made is that lots of people who should have stopped being paid lots of money to make predictions will continue to make inaccurate predictions and continue to be paid lots of money.

Edit: well done, road.cc, continuing the fine media tradition of conflating *everything* with Brexit is having a fine effect on the comments.

Or maybe it's a trap, set up to draw us in and fry us, like an insectazap. Maybe everyone who comments on this thread will be banhammered. In which case, chapeau... was nice knowing you...

No. You can't just say "it's complicated" and "I don't believe experts" and claim that no-one can say what will happen. Broad conclusions are certainly possible, and with the current direction it's clear that our economy will take a big hit.

That's really not clear at all. Sorry.

To you, possibly. To anyone with a grasp of economics, it is clear.

Sorry mate, that's just BS. None of the dire economic forecasts in the immediate aftermath of the vote came to pass. Google it. Now if you're telling me you actually predicted it because of your 'grasp of economics', then you did better than the Chancellor, the markets and the BOE. If not, then no offence, I'm not going to take your predictions of post Brexit economic strife as a given.

stomec replied to drosco | 7 years ago

2 likes

Quote:

Sorry mate, that's just BS. None of the dire economic forecasts in the immediate aftermath of the vote came to pass. Google it. Now if you're telling me you actually predicted it because of your 'grasp of economics', then you did better than the Chancellor, the markets and the BOE. If not, then no offence, I'm not going to take your predictions of post Brexit economic strife as a given.

Erm... The reason the predictions of post Brexit economic strife haven't come true yet may be because we haven't actually left the EU yet. Or even formally said we are going to.

davel replied to Bikebikebike | 7 years ago

2 likes

Bikebikebike wrote:

davel wrote:

dafyddp wrote:

I think the costs of bicycles will be the least of our worries. Without wanting to sound facetious, I believe many right-of-centre politicians view cycling as the very sort of European activity they want to see the back of. The present Transport Minister is clearly no fan.

I'm fearful that the modest improvements we've seen in cycling infrastructure in many cities will grind to a halt. UKIP and their ilk make no secret of their support for the downtrodden motorist. Don't be suprised when hard-won cycle paths are torm-up in favour of on-street car-parking, and the call for cycle registration/insurance gets louder.

Surely nobody except our UKIP tax haven overlords will be able to afford cars in this dystopia? We won't be able to afford to run the trains or even buy a ticket, so...

Cyclists reclaim the streets!

Look, nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen.

This situation is so complex that even when you scratch the surface you should be seeing the potential for unintended consequences everywhere - we've seen one example of a pretty obvious one come from the supreme court today.

The only solid prediction that can be made is that lots of people who should have stopped being paid lots of money to make predictions will continue to make inaccurate predictions and continue to be paid lots of money.

Edit: well done, road.cc, continuing the fine media tradition of conflating *everything* with Brexit is having a fine effect on the comments.

Or maybe it's a trap, set up to draw us in and fry us, like an insectazap. Maybe everyone who comments on this thread will be banhammered. In which case, chapeau... was nice knowing you...

No. You can't just say "it's complicated" and "I don't believe experts" and claim that no-one can say what will happen. Broad conclusions are certainly possible, and with the current direction it's clear that our economy will take a big hit.

Don't put words in my mouth. We need experts.

We don't need the talking heads and politicisation of state economics.

Someone identifying a complicated problem as simple doesn't understand the problem.

Dnnnnnn | 7 years ago

6 likes

A very long-winded way of saying we don't know?