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Bike boom over?
Was chatting to my always helpful LBS today and they said to expect heavy discounting of 2022 bikes, there's a lot of unsold stock kicking around in bricks and mortar retail. Seems like an oversupply/overstock issue bouncing back from COVID supply chain issues, coupled with a fall in spending. They've no base models left but plenty in the £1500-£2k bracket - bikes sporting Tiagra and 105 hydro. Top end still selling well.
For example, I've just bought a secondhand '22 bike for a smidge over £500 (around half list price) and they've just started appearing new from £800. I've also been tracking the secondhand market (well, eBay) for about 6 weeks and there aren't many bikes selling. Secondhand components are cheap too, particularly non-hydro 105 & Ultegra.
Certainly a good time to be buying, including buying new.
If you're new please join in and if you have questions pop them below and the forum regulars will answer as best we can.
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7 comments
I sort of saw the supply chain issues coming in 2020, after LBS mentioned in Autumn 2020 that Cube had ceased supply of new bike orders until Autumn 2021 due to (his opinion) bigger brands (Specialized, Giant, Scott, Cannondale for example) pre-buying most of Shimano's groupset capacity. Also at work, advance shipping container prices for 2021 had started to skyrocket (3x - 4x 2019 prices).
So rightly or wrongly, I bought a stock of consumable spares for my fleet, Shimano J & L type pads x2 each, Conti GP5000 & 4 Season tyres x2 each, Ultegra & 105 chains & cassettes x1 each, SPD-SL cleats, etc. These saw me through 2021/22 thankfully.
Whether the bike boom is over or not, I think the pre-2020 retail discounts of 30-40% we all got used to are definitely over, so I agree with IanMSpencer, waiting for when Shimano pads are <£20 again!
Some bikes are easily available now, parts however for existing owners are somewhat tough to obtain. Speaking to a Mechanic colleague who works in the orange logo car shop and they said they can't even get parts..... I'm getting lots of people upgrading/getting bikes back out for the commute needing service/repair at the moment. Used bike prices still too high on some "brands" but seems many are trying to get back what they paid out to boost the bank balance in these tight fiscal times.....
I bought my latest bike from a guy who trades in used bikes (small scale). Lots of basically unridden lockdown bikes around but sellers wanting top £££ for them, buyers very sluggish. Aims to clear £50-£100 on each sale.
It is getting to be over, but getting the bike you want can still be a game. This year's model of the bike I bought a year ago appears to have similar availability.
On the other hand, I sold a bunch of cheap and cheerful bikes earlier in the year and definitely felt that there wasn't much enthusiasm in the market - they sold but all to just about single person interest and at a deliberately generous price to get rid of them.
My goto test part is the Shimano L05A brake pad. It used to be around £14 in 2017 (as L04A) but in lockdown has gone up to about £24. Any variety of Shimano oad disc brake pad is still rarely found at Wiggle/CRC. I use non-finned varieties, but I'd quite like to run finned on the front brake of my gravel bike for rough rides just in case (having done some silly descents with heavy braking as I am not brave).
So the boom will be officially over in my eyes when Shimano pads come back down to sane prices!
Oversupply + inflated prices meeting satiated and declining desire, falling disposable income generally - and perhaps willingness to pay when some places are asking close to £1000 for a Claris-equipped bike.
I'm really impressed with Claris on my new bike. I'll be replacing it with Tiagra 4700 but only because it came with 175mm square taper cranks and I ride 165mm. Claris is nicely integrated, easy to set up, cheap, and robust. I can't detect any change in shifting vs Tiagra
Claris is good, no argument there. It's just that many entry-level rides equipped with it seem to have increased hugely in price over the past couple of years, making those bikes unaffordable or undesirable to some (with higher groupsets also being shunted up in price - all likely to reduce demand when times are tough).
A potential upside is that it might encourage people to invest in keeping their existing bikes in service - is your LBS's workshop doing relatively better than its bike sales?