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Commuters predicted to abandon public transport and bikes in favour of cars

Government aim to double cycling journeys not reflected in its own projections

Department for Transport (DfT) modelling suggests that over the course of the next 25 years, commuters will ditch bikes and public transport and instead get behind the wheel. All modes of transport are forecast to drop in popularity by 2040 except for cars.

In 2015, Britons made on average 22.1 journeys by bike, but this is predicted to drop to 20.5 by 2040, while the number of bus trips is predicted to fall by about a quarter.

In contrast, car journeys are forecast to rise from 2015’s 453.4 journeys to 503.9 a year – and despite this greater car us, it is also predicted that fewer trips will be made as a passenger in a car. Single occupancy car journeys would therefore appear to be the future – at least according to the DfT.

The figures do not account for the Department's Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy, which was still in development when the forecasts were made.

Nevertheless, shadow transport secretary Lillian Greenwood told The Times: “Ministers claim that they will double cycling journeys by 2025 but their own projections predict that cycling will tail off. It's now clearer than ever that plans to cut walking and cycling funding by over 70 per cent will hasten this decline and lead to even more cars on congested and poorly maintained roads.”

The DfT said: "We want more people to switch to public transport and are investing a record £61bn to deliver the transport connections of the future."

That figure includes a commitment to £300m-worth of cycling investment. £15bn of the money will be allocated to the Strategic Road Network, the nation’s network of motorways and A-roads.

Last month, the DfT reported a nine per cent decline in bicycle usage last year – a drop of about 300 million miles travelled by bike compared to 2014. At the time, the DfT said that this was a statistical blip masking an almost continuous annual increase.

The fall also coincided with a record number of vehicles on British roads, with 316.7bn traffic miles logged in 2015 – a rise of 1.6 per cent compared to 2014. Provisional estimates for the 12-months up until March 2016 indicated a further rise to 318.5bn vehicle miles in that period.

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22 comments

Avatar
frogg | 7 years ago
3 likes

First you finance a story like the one above, then the government builds massive infrastructure for sustaining the predicted traffic, denying any other alternative in the process then, bingo, you have a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Avatar
CarlosFerreiro | 7 years ago
3 likes

"DfT modells show goverment tergets for active travel will not be met! Things will not only not improve under the current approach, they'll get worse than they were before we started! Masive implications for congestion, polution, carbon emmissions, public health, NHS funding, sustainable planning, social mobility! Late night cabinet meeting called to push through emergency funding and statutory requirements to public bodies, UK wide!"

Well, likley not the last bit, eh?

Avatar
burtthebike | 7 years ago
4 likes

"The figures do not account for the Department's Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy, which was still in development when the forecasts were made."

Given the utterly pathetic  level of funding for the CWIS, there wouldn't really be too much point in factoring it in to the forecast.

Which is really the problem; if sufficient funds were made available for CWIS, then the whole scenario would change, but while our cretinous government continue to spend the vast majority of transport funding on encouraging driving, it's hardly surprising that most people drive.

Avatar
bigshape | 7 years ago
4 likes

some people are just lazy and there's nothing you can do to change that.

it requires less brain power to use one of the standard excuses not to ride a bike, than it is for people to change their routine.

it's the boots meal deal, greggs pasty mentallity.

be a robot.

do as society and advertisers tell you.

stick with what you know.

 

Avatar
brooksby | 7 years ago
3 likes

Problem we have is like that photoshopped image I saw somewhere of a congested road with petrol cars and a congested road with electric cars - they look exactly the same!  Electric cars may help emissions, but don't help congestion.

If the powers that be really think that the numbers of cars on the road is going to keep going up at this rate, then either every A-road in the country is going to have to compuldsarily purchase another couple of lanes (and we can't afford to maintain the lanes we already have!) or else driving a private car is going to have to become prohibitively expensive (road charging, probably).

Avatar
rogermerriman | 7 years ago
1 like

My commute is short distance and fun/relaxing quiet back streets and one of Londons rather forgotten Royal Parks.

 

people like cars which is why they will put up with various hassles with them, hence some of the  fan boy stuff over Tesla.  

Avatar
brooksby | 7 years ago
1 like

Quote:

In 2015, Britons made on average 22.1 journeys by bike, but this is predicted to drop to 20.5 by 2040,

Is that annually, or weekly, or daily? yes

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Zermattjohn | 7 years ago
6 likes

Try riding the A6 through Stockport at 8am. If you're smiling you're doing something VERY wrong..!

Avatar
nappe | 7 years ago
12 likes

The women I work with, in catering, all on minimum wage, all part time, all have cars. The average commute for them is 4 miles, it takes about 30/40 minutes.

They all have very little money and are all out of shape, people just don't get the link...

Avatar
danthomascyclist | 7 years ago
5 likes

Part of the problem is these ridiculous finance schemes that enable low-earners to have top-of-the-range Audis/BMWs/Mercedes etc. An alarming number of people are sinking all their disposable income on a monthly lease agreement - they can't afford to not drive

Avatar
handlebarcam | 7 years ago
5 likes

I can well believe these predictions, unfortunately. As civil society disintegrates, what is a self-interested individual to do, other than seal him-or-her-self off inside their own private bubble of steel and glass, with a powerful engine and a loud horn so they can give as good as they get. Likewise, as global warming causes more extreme weather, an air-conditioned 4x4 looks less like the ridiculous toy of the rich it was in the past, and more an essential tool to survive summer heatwaves and winter floods. Of course, both these impulses make the situation worse overall, feeding into a vicious circle. Government spending, however it is directed, cannot stop such a powerful feedback loop. Policy changes would harm business interests and lose votes. It is all going down, they know that, as research such as this reveals, so what else to do but set up ludicrous distractions...

Avatar
tritecommentbot | 7 years ago
3 likes

I just don't get driving in the city. I had a car since I was 17 because I lived 20 miles away from the city when I lived in my home town, but after moving to major cities, never felt the need for a car. I have had periods since then when I bought a car any way, even bought one for my partner and taught her to drive, but it sat on the drive for a year, used only a handful of times because she'd walk or take the bus to work instead. Parking is mad expensive here right in the city centre and a complete and utter nightmare any way to get parked.

 

Sold it. Now we just rent a car when we're on holiday. Can also rent easily for any other reason. Flights are cheap and faster than driving if you need to move around the UK so.. we do that.

 

That said, I would get a car again if I had kids, or if I just felt like I wanted it for some other reason and sometimes I do. Just not enough for the past few years. We get nearly all our shopping delivered. Food, clothes, stuff. Occassionally pick up some things during the week on the way home or whatever. 

 

What's funny is there was no period after selling the cars off where I missed them. I don't need the bubble, just happened to have it. That might not be the same for everyone, some people may be attached to that feeling of security and personal space.

 

Face it, a lot of cyclists are thrill seekers and a bit aggressive deep down. Actually take enjoyment out of the bustle of commuting and racing around on the bike. Not the same for most people. 

Avatar
Zermattjohn replied to tritecommentbot | 7 years ago
8 likes

unconstituted wrote:

Face it, a lot of cyclists are thrill seekers and a bit aggressive deep down. Actually take enjoyment out of the bustle of commuting and racing around on the bike. Not the same for most people. 

 

That's a pretty stupid statement. You could possibly say that a lot of people are thrill seekers and aggressive deep down. It's just one of these types riding a bike is going to do a lot less damage to anyone other than themselves than one driving a 1-tonne lump of metal.

For me, I just want to get to work. I don't gain any pleasure from riding to work, there's definitely no thrill in it, but it seems the most efficient way of doing it. When I ride my bike for pleasure it's on quieter roads.

Avatar
LarryDavidJr replied to Zermattjohn | 7 years ago
12 likes
Zermattjohn wrote:

I don't gain any pleasure from riding to work, there's definitely no thrill in it

You're doing it wrong.  3

Avatar
tritecommentbot replied to Zermattjohn | 7 years ago
1 like

Zermattjohn wrote:

unconstituted wrote:

Face it, a lot of cyclists are thrill seekers and a bit aggressive deep down. Actually take enjoyment out of the bustle of commuting and racing around on the bike. Not the same for most people. 

 

That's a pretty stupid statement. You could possibly say that a lot of people are thrill seekers and aggressive deep down. It's just one of these types riding a bike is going to do a lot less damage to anyone other than themselves than one driving a 1-tonne lump of metal.

For me, I just want to get to work. I don't gain any pleasure from riding to work, there's definitely no thrill in it, but it seems the most efficient way of doing it. When I ride my bike for pleasure it's on quieter roads.

 

Totally doing it wrong. 

Avatar
vonhelmet replied to Zermattjohn | 7 years ago
1 like

Zermattjohn wrote:

For me, I just want to get to work. I don't gain any pleasure from riding to work, there's definitely no thrill in it, but it seems the most efficient way of doing it. When I ride my bike for pleasure it's on quieter roads.

I used to commute into central Manchester and it was hell, especially as I was coming from the north west, which doesn't really have any nice ways in. I've changed jobs now and I commute a comparable distance to a science park in the sticks near Warrington. Half the commute is on moderately busy town roads and half is on fairly quiet country roads. It's great, because I can really give it some beans once I hit the country roads. So yeah, I actually do get to open up the taps and enjoy my commute.

Avatar
brooksby replied to tritecommentbot | 7 years ago
2 likes

unconstituted wrote:

I just don't get driving in the city.

About twice a year I have to bring my car to work, as I have to go to a regular meeting outside the city and which I cannot easily cycle to (actually, I could, but it would take longer than driving there so I don't get a permission slip to cycle).

In the morning I will admit that at the time I come in it is faster driving to the office than cycling, because of the hills and a long straight-ish high speed limit road.

But leaving the office to come home at the end of the day you are just crawling through the city watching the petrol gauge gradually move toward empty...

Avatar
LarryDavidJr replied to tritecommentbot | 7 years ago
1 like

unconstituted wrote:

I just don't get driving in the city. I had a car since I was 17 because I lived 20 miles away from the city when I lived in my home town, but after moving to major cities, never felt the need for a car. I have had periods since then when I bought a car any way, even bought one for my partner and taught her to drive, but it sat on the drive for a year, used only a handful of times because she'd walk or take the bus to work instead. Parking is mad expensive here right in the city centre and a complete and utter nightmare any way to get parked.

 

Sold it. Now we just rent a car when we're on holiday. Can also rent easily for any other reason. Flights are cheap and faster than driving if you need to move around the UK so.. we do that.

 

That said, I would get a car again if I had kids, or if I just felt like I wanted it for some other reason and sometimes I do. Just not enough for the past few years. We get nearly all our shopping delivered. Food, clothes, stuff. Occassionally pick up some things during the week on the way home or whatever. 

 

What's funny is there was no period after selling the cars off where I missed them. I don't need the bubble, just happened to have it. That might not be the same for everyone, some people may be attached to that feeling of security and personal space.

 

Face it, a lot of cyclists are thrill seekers and a bit aggressive deep down. Actually take enjoyment out of the bustle of commuting and racing around on the bike. Not the same for most people. 

The thing I use the car for most, now that I cycle to work every day is, ironically, to take the family bikes to different locations for various cycling reasons! (clubs, competitions etc.).  

Avatar
Cyclosis | 7 years ago
4 likes

It's ubsurd. They make the same ridiculous calculations every year and it is wrong every year. They just flat ignore the fact that distance travelled by car been falling consistantly for over a decade.

Here's a blog on exactly the same thing from 2013:

https://aseasyasridingabike.wordpress.com/2014/11/28/the-dft-and-their-c...

They just keep on repeating the same mistake. Or is it made on purpose? The cynic in me says it suits the motoring lobby just fine.

 

Avatar
Rich_cb | 7 years ago
4 likes

If driverless cars become a reality then a lot of the advantages of public transport and cycling will disappear.

Taking the car will become cheaper and less restrictive.

On the plus side driverless cars should make cycling a lot safer for those of us who will persist!

Avatar
Zermattjohn | 7 years ago
11 likes

More and more people just realising that they love their car, even if it's the least efficient, most polluting and most dangerous form of transport. My commute has changed recently and I am amazed every day that I sail past miles, literally miles, of people crawing along in cars. Even going nowhere and blaming everyone else for the traffic jams, people just will not get out of their car. I suppose it's the best place to pick your nose, eat some toast and listen to the radio.

Avatar
PhilRuss replied to Zermattjohn | 7 years ago
0 likes

Zermattjohn wrote:

More and more people just realising that they love their car, even if it's the least efficient, most polluting and most dangerous form of transport. My commute has changed recently and I am amazed every day that I sail past miles, literally miles, of people crawing along in cars. Even going nowhere and blaming everyone else for the traffic jams, people just will not get out of their car. I suppose it's the best place to pick your nose, eat some toast and listen to the radio.

   [[[[ Not at all...you can do all three while cycling.  And all at the same time too, if you wanna show off!

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