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Has cycling passed its peak? Cycling levels down as motor traffic doubles

Cycling still up by 70 per cent compared to early March

While cycling levels are up by 70 per cent compared to the period before the coronavirus lockdown, this represents a slight decline in recent weeks. The change comes alongside news that motor traffic has doubled compared to the lockdown low back in April.

UK motor traffic fell to its lowest level for 65 years at the start of lockdown, with travel on the nation’s roads plummeting to levels not seen since 1955.

Traffic fell to between 35 and 40 per cent of the pre-coronavirus volume, but with the lockdown being eased, it has since risen to around 75 per cent.

The AA’s head of roads policy, Jack Cousens, told the BBC that motor traffic could return to pre-lockdown levels "by the end of July" – and with the Government still discouraging the use of public transport, there is obvious potential to exceed even that.

However, Cousens said that with no real night-time economy at the moment, there was still "very little traffic" after 7pm, while weekends remain quieter because of the cancellation of mass events.

The Government is aware of a looming congestion crisis and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has spoken of a “new Golden Age of cycling” after informing UK mayors that far more commuters would need to cycle as the nation emerged from lockdown.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps last month announced a £250m emergency active travel fund for the creation of pop-up bike lanes and other measures to improve cycling and walking.

You can see a breakdown of emergency cycle lane funding by region here and we’ve been attempting to document what’s happening throughout the country here.

Speaking at the start of this month, Shapps said that the level of weekday cycling had doubled in Great Britain since the introduction of lockdown in late March, with even stronger growth at weekends.

However, on Thursday he tweeted that cycling levels are now around 70 per cent higher than in early March, which would appear to indicate that there has been a decline in recent weeks.

While the lockdown period has seen a boom in bike sales, a recent report predicted that the industry would ultimately see a 10 per cent contraction in 2020. Mintel went on to say that the industry would then recover over the next three years as pent-up demand is released.

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19 comments

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Bungle_52 | 3 years ago
3 likes

I am afraid the British have shown themselves to value the comfort of the motor car over clean air and the opportunity to hear bird song. I say themselves because I haven't used my car since lockdown and have cycled everywhere.

Ah well it was nice while it lasted. Having grown up in the fifties I count yself lucky to have experienced the quiet roads one more time.

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Velophaart_95 replied to Bungle_52 | 3 years ago
1 like

You're quite right. We've based our entire lives around the car; shopping, commuting to work, etc Problem, it's going to take a major u-turn for people to give it up.

I would class myself as a car fan, and love motorsport - but I've begun to turn. Are all these cars neccessary? Are all these 1 person vehicle commutes really neccessary? 

Can't people walk, cycle or use a scooter/motorcycle all of which are surely better than the car/ public transport for commuting. However, the car has a large lobby in the corridors of power.

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BIRMINGHAMisaDUMP | 3 years ago
5 likes

The schools will be back in Sept (as will social locations such as cinemas, pubs . . . ) and that, will be that,. 

I agree with David Rides - there was a period in April when it was amazing the amount of  cyclists and the variety of cyclists on the roads. That's slowly ebbing away. I don't see children any longer or older people. What gets me is that at the beginning of April when London was like Amsterdam for the number of bicycles on the road, what were all these bikes doing pre - virus? They can't have just been purchased, that would have been impossible logistically. 'Lock down' end of March - London = Amsterdam beginning of April; just not possible. So there are thousands of bikes just sitting in sheds and hallways with people who are too scared to use them. That is quite sad. 

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Judge dreadful | 3 years ago
2 likes

yeah, it's over, and we're only in summer. There will be loads of bargains to be had on eBay et.al, in a few weeks.

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Gary's bike channel | 3 years ago
3 likes

definitely past it we have. It was the best time, roughly 6 to 7 weeks ago. God i wish i could go back to it. It was like, every other vehicle on the road was a bicycle! not head down speeding types, but actual people just cruising. Families, girls on their own, it was great. The cars could easily pass because they just went up the middle, with bicycles going both ways on the roads. Heaven it was. No, it wont go back to that unless china invents some othersuper killer virus for us. The roads now are just as busy as ever, down here anyway. I am getting mostly good passes though, which is nice. But today i only saw teenagers cycling and one family, but they were on a shared path, not the road, whereas 7 weeks back, i saw families on the roads everywhere. It angers me a lot this. All they had to do was put pop up cycle lanes everywhere, then build them slowly yet properly over time, to stop traffic going back to mainly car use, but they didnt do it, so given it until after xmas, itll be back to close passes, horn abuse and nobody cycling apart from speedy people.

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Ratfink | 3 years ago
1 like

I kind of inherited a car at the beginning of lockdown having not owned one for many years Having to still go to work all the way through i've been using it to commute i've got to say that the one thing that has shocked me is how cheap it is compared to using public transport which i would much rather do but at the present i'm choosing not to.My commute is in zones 3-5 in outer London and it costs me £30 a week.A tank of fuel at present is £38 and it lasts me 3 weeks working 6 days a week.I know there are other costs involved road tax etc the insurance actually went down £50 when i added commuting to it.I have to say the novelty is beginning to wear off as the traffic is increasing.Yeah i know i could've been cycling and paying sod all but for various reasons it's not been an option not the least of being the fact that i've been absolutely shattered from work both mentally and physically at times.I've barely managed 3 runs around the woods on my MTB during this period.

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OnYerBike replied to Ratfink | 3 years ago
2 likes

I would say this is one of the major barriers to reducing car use. If you weigh up the total cost of running a car versus public transport, public transport is likely to be attractive.

However, once you've bought a car, insured it, tax it, MOT'd it, the marginal costs of driving it (i.e. the petrol) are pretty low - it's almost always cheaper to drive somewhere than to leave the car sitting in the driveway and take public transport. 

This creates a viscious cycle - once you have a car, it becomes economically rational to use the car, which means fewer people use public transport, which puts pressure on to raise fares and reduce timetables. Making public transport less attractive, so more people buy cars...

Solutions: 1) Free (or very cheap) public transport. Free has the advantage that you can do away with tickets, ticket barriers etc. No need for customers to plan or think, just hop on the train.

2) Congestion charging, parking charging etc - even if the cost of petrol remains low, you can increase the marginal cost of a car journey (and indeed target the most harmful car journeys, rather than penalising people who live in rural areas with no public transport).

Both of these make it rational to leave the car sitting in the driveway, and use public transport. Once people starting doing that, the viscious cycle works the other way - public transport becomes more regular, more reliable, more route options. It becomes more feasible for people who don't currently own a car to think they don't need to buy one, or for people who already own one to think about selling it rather than leaving it on the driveway eating money for nothing.

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Rich_cb replied to OnYerBike | 3 years ago
1 like

Completely agree with the point about marginal costs.

IMO that is the main thing holding back public transport.

Unfortunately can't see any way of increasing the marginal cost fairly without road charging which would be a very difficult sell politically.

Abolish VED, fuel duty and VAT on new cars and you might persuade motorists to accept it.

Once it's in the virtuous circle can begin!

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mdavidford replied to OnYerBike | 3 years ago
0 likes

Very cheap can also do away with a lot of the infrastructure, etc., if you simplify the fare structure and run it largely on an honesty system. Yes, you will get some who just opt not to pay, but if it's cheap enough and doesn't require much thinking about (e.g. single fare for any journey, pre-pay cards for different usage levels widely available, simple scan the card when you board process), the vast majority will pay, providing income for little investment.

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Rick_Rude | 3 years ago
1 like

Loads of cyclists out today, also loads of cars.

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alchemilla | 3 years ago
10 likes

Our local council rejected the idea of space for cycling as they thought it would be unpopular. Traffic now back to pre--covid levels. Feels like any opportunity we had has been missed.

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ktache | 3 years ago
1 like

I'm still seeing quite a few more "new" cyclists out there.  More than I would expect even given the time of year, new bikes, old bikes without any "retro" vibe.  There is still hope.

I think we are still going to be at "summer holiday" or less levels of traffic until September, maybe.  Much less schooling and still lots working from home.

The weather is improving a lot this week.

My new lab has a radio that can only pick up Eagle, and there were traffic reports yesterday.  Sitting in traffic in the heat could be a bit of persuasion, though to be fair it never has been before.

Though I suppose people did try cycling again for the fitness allowance.

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Hirsute replied to ktache | 3 years ago
0 likes

So many cars have aircon as standard, sitting in heat is not an issue.

My wife claims is a scarred from a trip back from the Lakes many years ago in a ford escort with no air con.

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mdavidford replied to Hirsute | 3 years ago
1 like
hirsute wrote:

So many cars have aircon as standard, sitting in heat is not an issue.

Especially with a slide in fuel prices making it cheaper to run.

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mdavidford | 3 years ago
2 likes

Depending on what they're measuring as 'levels of cycling', which is never entirely clear, there may be an aspect in this of people returning to work and having less free time, and therefore doing less recreational cycling than they were a couple of weeks ago.

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Awavey replied to mdavidford | 3 years ago
2 likes

I could only find estimated figures for cycling when the government quoted the original figures in the Covid briefings,so Ive no idea really what they are basing these numbers on or how they are measuring it, car numbers are easier to track through all kinds of means, but cyclists I dont know how they are doing it,shame really as it would be nice to cite real figures at all the cycling naysayers for a change especially as they are riling against all the popup infra complaining they werent consulted (ie allowed to object).

anectdotally my experience is yes cycling numbers did go up noticeably through March/April & into May,but I felt they dipped back when the first easing of lockdown started and motor vehicles were back in the ascendency, but last couple of weeks its felt like there are more cyclists out again maybe not as many as before but certainly groups of families,couples old & young, so there are plenty of new cyclists around

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paulrbarnard | 3 years ago
6 likes

Oportunity lost...

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brooksby replied to paulrbarnard | 3 years ago
6 likes

Of course. The Govt and councils all started talking about pop up infrastructure etc, but very little of it made it beyond committee stage before everyone started saying, "You know what? I think I'll just take the car" again.

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HarrogateSpa replied to brooksby | 3 years ago
3 likes

Bids for the 1st tranche of funding had to be made by 5th June, and work must be started within 4 weeks, i.e. 3rd July.

It is disappointing to see an immediate lack of action, but at least the DfT is imposing a tight timetable for councils to do something.

I'm trying to push my (hopeless) Highways Authority, North Yorkshire, hold them to account, and make sure they meet the deadline.

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